Archive for September 29, 2011

Mississippi State at Georgia Preview

Even though UGA and MSU are charter members of the SEC, they have only met 22 times with the first meeting in 1914. Georgia holds the edge in the series at 16-6. Mississippi State is looking for their first win in Athens since 1956. The most recent meeting in Athens was 2006, a game that came down to the wire. With 18 seconds left, down by three points and on the Georgia 22 yard line, Michael Henig fumbled and State ended up losing 27-24. Last year, MSU won 24-12 with Georgia having to score a late touchdown to make the score more respectable.

This year’s game brings two teams with identical records (2-2), who came into the season with similar expectations (UGA #19, MSU #20), and of course both have the same nickname (but not the same kind of mascot).

It’s amazing how quickly a coach’s outlook can change. After Week 1, UGA fans were prepared to throw Richt to the wolves and MSU fans were prepared to construct a statue of Mullen. Three weeks later and Richt’s seat has cooled down considerably and State fans were booing at last week’s game.

Georgia’s 3-4 defensive scheme has had some success so far this year as they are currently ranked 13th in the country, which is good for 3rd in the SEC. Despite struggling to keep linebackers healthy, UGA has done well in both rush and especially pass defense led by Bacardi Rambo and Brandon Boykin. Georgia’s defense has held opponents to 25% conversion of 3rd down, MSU was 3 of 16 last week…Relf & Co. need to find themselves in third and short most of the game.

Georgia’s two losses both came against teams with defensive lines that are regarded to be at the top of the country. Stopping Isiah Crowell and their running game like Boise State did will be key, if Aaron Murrey gets to open the offense up State could be in trouble.

Looking up and down the stat sheet, looking up and down the rosters, these teams look very similar. Both have second year starting quarterbacks who were preseason all-SEC (Murray-1st, Relf-3rd). Both have talented running backs and good but not great receivers. Both have had injuries on the offensive line, and have very good talent yet something to prove on D line. Both also lost NFL talent at linebacker and have very talented, veteran secondaries.

UGA should have the edge on special teams, although Blair Walsh missed three field goals last week in Oxford. Brandon Boykin is one of the most dynamic players in the SEC–up there with Chris Rainey. But MSU has some weapons of their own and this should be a very competitive game.

Dirty Panda Prediction

Dirty Panda isn’t calling for just a win, but a demolition of the hedges! 38-17 THE Mississippi State University.

Let’s Start Fresh in October

Saturday’s game vs. Louisiana Tech was for sure frustrating, but at least State made the key plays towards the end of the game to put that one in the W column instead of the L. As long as performing poorly isn’t going to be a recurring theme, that win is just as good as blowing them out. Hopefully, the team will respond positively to such a close call, knowing they have to work even harder. And hopefully they will never wear black jerseys again.

Is Mississippi State over-rated? After losing a 1st round pick in Derek Sherrod and veteran center J.C. Brignone off last year’s team, should we have expected less? Was Pernell McPhee and 3 senior linebackers, including two NFL draft picks, too much to lose? Well, this is college football and everyone has plenty of turnover. While there has been drop off at LB, and some poorly played downs–especially against Auburn, I don’t think that has hurt us too much. Kaleb Eulls has played well at DE, but he of course isn’t going to match McPhee’s abilities right away. The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. James Carmon has missed the last two and a half games, Tobias Smith has missed the last two, and Quentin Saulsberry has been dinged up for the last 2+ games. And MSU has been using freshman as replacements.

Still, even with the patchwork O-line, State is in the top half of the SEC in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, and tied for 5th in sacks allowed. Vick Ballard leads all rushers with at least 50 carries with 7 yards per carry. Chris Relf undoubtedly lost his confidence in the LA Tech game. He was 2 of 9 on 3rd down, and State was 3 of 16 as a whole. James Carmon is coming back this week, and if Relf can regroup, MSU will be fine. It was good to see Chad Bumphis make his presence felt as well getting some touches and returning a punt for a touchdown.

Coming into the season there’s no doubt everyone, including myself, had really high expectations. The players have even higher ones. They want to win worse than any fan does. It was disappointing to hear the fans booing last week. There’s absolutely no reason to boo a college player(s). If you want to boo the coach, fine, but wait until the end of the game. This is college football where students, alumni, and players all hold a common bond–their school. We should stick together and have each other’s back. The player’s know when they aren’t performing, and booing isn’t helping them get back on track. They played tight in that 2nd half, they were scared to lose, as that would let themselves and everyone around them down if they did.

The football season is now 1/3 complete. It’s time to reset the season. Don’t look at the remaining schedule and count wins and losses, just root for the Dawgs to win every week. If they don’t, they don’t. If they do, then celebrate. Let’s get behind the team and hopefully they’ll make a great run in the final two months of the season.  Let’s start fresh in October.

Mississippi State vs. LA Tech Game Notes

This will be the 11th meeting between Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State, MSU holds the advantage at 7 games to 3.

LA Tech’s first game was at Southern Miss on a rain-soaked field and they lost 19-17. They only mustered 244 yards that night, by far their lowest output so far. The defense gave up 3 sacks, allowed 4 yards per carry and 379 total yards.

Their second game was at home vs. FCS school Central Arkansas. LA Tech needed overtime to beat them, 48-42. They did have 542 yards of total offense, but gave up 445 yards.

Last week they had Houston on the ropes at home, after leading 34-7 late in the 3rd quarter they let the Cougars come back to win 35-34. Their defense allowed 449 yards, but held the opponent to under 3 yards per carry for the second consecutive game. The LA Tech offense got 444 yards offense including 233 rushing–breaking 200+ for the second straight game as well.

Louisiana Tech is tied for 59th in the FBS in total offense. MSU is 25th. LA Tech is 99th in total defense, MSU is 64th.

LA Tech won the last meeting, which was played in Ruston, LA in front of 25,000, 22-14. This game is sold out, and will have well over double the amount of fans.

After playing 3 teams called Tigers, MSU will now begin a 2 game stretch playing teams of their likeness, the Bulldogs. MSU is a 19 point favorite in the game.

Dirty Panda Reflects on Burning Issues

With great anticipation towards the season, it is easy to forget that while MSU is getting better, other teams are getting better as well. One of the main reasons LSU’s defense is so dominant is because of John Chavis, their defensive coordinator. Don’t discount coaching. Not only are the best athletes in the SEC, but the best coaches are too. But, those coaches leave, and when they do they often leave a gap in production even when a good coach comes in (like when Bo Pelini left and Chavis came in). State has to be ready to seize the day when that happens and take full advantage.

LSU’s defensive line dominated in the game Thursday night. But State had replaced a couple of offensive lineman due to injuries so that had something to do with it. The biggest difference between the two teams was overall speed at the skill positions. MSU has done a good job developing players from the time they get on campus to become much better in order to compete in the SEC. But you can’t teach speed. State needs to find a way to recruit some elite speed.

A lot of people are upset with Tyler Russell. First, they are upset he was put into the LSU game with the outcome still in doubt. Well, kind of in doubt. Don’t necessarily agree with putting him in the game, he was cold and at least Relf had been looking at that LSU defense for three and a half quarters. But let’s calm down on the Tyler Russell isn’t any good talk. How good was Chris Relf in his sophomore season? I would say Russell is farther along at this point in his career than Relf. Russell will improve, give him a break.

That’s enough about how Mullen is 2-9 against the SEC West, can’t beat the big boys. This is only his third year! State has been down so long, the tendency is to what to win big…now. And while that can happen, there is no need to be impatient when it doesn’t happen. You can’t always take one step forward, sometimes you have to take one step back and then two steps forward.

Can you believe Mississippi State hung right with LSU for three and a half quarters? Well, of course you can. But, if I had asked you that 5, 6 years ago…what would you say? And be sure to mention that LSU had the best defense in the country…filled with NFL talent and they were just coming off a victory of the #4 team in the country. It’s not so bad, in fact, it’s great. MSU is competing very well! And soon, if we can all stay behind Dan Mullen and the team, State will become a champion!

LSU at Mississippi State

How will MSU respond to that heartbreaking loss to Auburn? The good news is, the game will be at home and the crowd will hopefully be able to lift the Bulldogs intensity. It’s not the Top 15, big time game everyone had hoped for, but it’s still a huge game. If State can win this one, it will quickly get the bad taste out of our mouths from last week’s crushing defeat.

Everyone is always quick to judge how good a team is after one or two games. Remember when everyone thought Auburn was awful because they almost got beat by Utah State? Same goes for LSU, they are getting a lot of love after they beat up on Oregon. Analysts would have you believe the LSU defense is so amazing not even an NFL team could score on them. Yes, they are good, but let’s take a step back for a minute.

In the Oregon game, LSU was the beneficiary of two fumbles inside their opponent’s 20 yard line, one of which they scored on after recovering. That’s 14 of their 40 points. Oregon has a lot of undersized players on the line of scrimmage, MSU’s lines are a lot bigger. LSU won’t be able to dominate in that area like they did in Dallas. If State can manage to not turn the ball over, they can hang with LSU.

Conventional wisdom is that LSU’s speed off the edge is so great, it will take away the option play that MSU ran so effectively against Auburn. If that is the case, then Chris Relf will likely have to throw more, against probably the first or second best secondary in the country. State’s receivers are going to have to block well so the option will be effective…they did a good job in the Auburn game, they will need to do better here. It’s going to be a tough game plan for Dan Mullen. MSU’s top rated SEC offense will surely be put to the test.

LSU’s offense is far from prolific. They still are without Russell Shepard at WR, and Jordan Jefferson is long gone. Spencer Ware and Michael Ford are solid running backs, and they will most likely rely on them and the defense to win the game. State’s defense has to show up for this game. Auburn ran circles around the defensive line for most of the game last week, but State has to bring the intensity in this one or LSU is going to blow their doors off. Somehow, someway, turnovers have to be forced. Whether it’s bringing pressure to force Jarrett Lee to make a bad throw and get an interception, or trying to strip the ball, State will probably need to get a pivotal turnover in this game to change the tide.

Mississippi State’s offense is very good. LSU defense is very very good. Both LSU’s offense and the MSU defense have a lot to prove. The special teams is what could decide this game. MSU started four drives inside their own 20 against Auburn. The top programs who recruit in the Top 10 every year may not have experience but they have speed, and a decent kicker plus lots of speed usually means good special teams. Those are hidden yards that Mississippi State has to find a way to negate. Field position will be key in this game. It is tough to score on LSU, if State has to drive 90 yards, it is next to impossible.  And if we allow the Tigers to start their possessions near mid-field, their offense won’t have to do too much just to get into field goal range.

State can win this game, but they cannot turn the ball over. They need to play better on special teams, keeping LSU’s speedy kick returners from bringing it back to the 40, 50 yard line. Mississippi State is a 4.5 point underdog in this game, I think it will be that close as well. If State can get a turnover, especially in LSU territory, then they will win the game.

History of MSU vs. LSU

The history of this rivalry isn’t pretty, but it hasn’t always been as bad as recent history. This series was first played in 1896, including that game there have been 104 matchups. LSU has won 68 of them.

The game has been played in Baton Rouge 65 times including 23 in a row from 1934 to 1957. The game has been played in Starkville only 19 times…the rest have been various places around Mississippi but mainly Jackson.

From 1910 to 1926, MSU went 9-3-1 vs. the Tigers. From 1939 to 1957 MSU was 10-6-1. In more recent history, MSU won 5 in a row vs. LSU from 1980 to 1984.

Times have not been good lately though, with LSU winning 11 in a row and 18 of the last 19 games. LSU won 10 in a row from 1964 to 1973, so this current losing streak is the longest in the history of the rivalry.

In 2000, State nearly had the Tigers beat, in Death Valley, at night…but ending up losing in overtime 45-38. The next seven years the game was not even close, with LSU winning by an average margin of 36 points. In 2004, I attended the game in Baton Rouge. I had heard the LSU fans are hostile to opposing fans. I guess they felt sorry for us, because they welcomed us with open arms. State lost the game 51-0.

In Croom’s final year, 2008, State made a decent showing, losing 34-24. Then in 2009, MSU almost had it…getting stopped at the goal-line on four straight attempts. State lost 30-26…a game in which we had four turnovers. Last year, the Dawgs shot themselves in the foot a bunch and lost 29-7, but really the talent on the field was closer than the score indicated.

This year, State looks to end the streak, in Starkville against the 2011 version of the Bayou Bengals who are ranked #3 in the country. It’s the 105th meeting between the two schools, and hopefully it will be MSU’s first win in a while, Dan Mullen’s first signature win vs. a Top 5 team.

Dirty Panda: 9/12/11

That was some tough bamboo to swallow. Not even calling for a pick-6 and Jonathon Banks making it happen can soften the blow.

 

Missed Opportunities:
1. Midway through the 3rd quarter, down 34-24, 2nd & 4 deep in Auburn territory – Relf did not hand the ball off and was tackled for a loss of 3 yards. State ended up settling for a field goal.

2. Next drive, Michael Carr was wide open for a touchdown and Relf threw his worst pass of the day. Two plays later it was 3rd and 7 from the Auburn 38 yard line. Down by seven, this was four down territory. Instead of throwing the down-field pass it probably would have been better to run on 3rd down and have a 4th and 2, 4th and 3 situation.

3. Last play of hte game, if Relf pitches to Ballard he walks into the endzone.

Missed calls:
1. Late in the 3rd, Auburn’s final scoring drive, 4th and 1 Dyer carries the ball. The spot looks generous, but still there appears to be light between the end of the chain and the ball…the announcer even said, “a little home-cooking for Auburn”.

2. 2nd & 5 on the 8 yard line, Vick Ballard leaps toward the endzone, it looked like the ball might have crossed the plane. Auburn called a timeout after the play but no booth review? Not 100% sure if it was a touchdown, if only Ballard had carried the ball in his right hand (which, fundamentally, he should have been on that sideline). Apparently, the rule was changed in the offseason about the goal-line plane extension. Last year, that was a touchdown, this year he had to either touch the pylon or land in the endzone for it to be a TD without the ball crossing the plane. But the next play the same line judge ignores Mullen’s timeout call until Dan’s in his face about it. Is the guy against State or just a space cadet?

Positives:
Down by 14 with nine minutes to go State was called for a personal foul which set Auburn up 1st & 10 on the 48 yard line. The defense sacked Trotter and forced two incompletions to get the ball back. If that wouldn’t have happened, it would’ve been a blowout. Then Auburn’s next possession, the defense forced a 3 & out. So after playing poor all day, the D was pretty clutch in those two instances.

The offensive line and backfield played great as State ran for 333 yards. Redshirtfreshman Blaine Clausell did a great job filling in at left tackle for James Carmon, who had to be carted off the field.

Chris Relf is one heck of a football player. He got leveled on his 1st quarter touchdown pass to Brandon Heavens, ran the ball 27 times, taking a beating but still getting up and playing a very effective quarterback. He’s like Tim Tebow and Cam Newton in that regard, but when he went up against the Auburn safety on the final play he didn’t quite have those player’s strength to bulldoze the defender.

Thoughts:
The defensive line did not look good. Auburn’s inexperienced O-line kept Trotter upright and opened enough holes for Michael Dyer to run wild for 150 yards.

It was tough to take this loss after watching both teams play in Week 1. On the field, Auburn has done nothing to deserve losing the #1 ranking. If they still had it this would have been considered a great effort by all State fans. But that’s not how it is. Still, the Dawgs went on the road in a very hostile environment and fought til the end. The offense took one step forward, the defense took two steps back.

Even though it’s a loss, State learned how to fight in this game. Past teams would have folded in the 4th quarter, not this one. One reason is the strength program, but the main reason is Mullen. Auburn had State on the ropes, on the verge of a blowout, up 14 with the ball at midfield, but State bowed up and stopped them, scored, and stopped them again. This comeback will payoff later in the year. That’s a toughness and belief in yourself that can’t be taught.

Notes:
MSU ran 97 offensive plays, Auburn ran 59 (Malzahn’s goal is 80).

The Dawgs outgained the Tigers by 150 yards.

State leads the SEC in total offense (588 yards per game), rushing offense (321 yards per game), and tackles for loss (8.5 per game).

State is 5th in the nation in total offense, and 99th in total defense. How about that for identity swap.

Neither James Carmon or Quentin Saulsberry’s injuries will require surgery. There is a good chance Saulsberry will be able to play vs. LSU.

And even though we can’t enjoy a victory today, we can still make fun of Ole Miss..

Trip to Auburn

I went to the Auburn game on Saturday. The day started out with incredible weather, a beautiful day for what I thought would be an MSU victory.

After skipping lunch for the early kickoff I decided to get some concessions, as I got to the end of the aisle everyone was stopped to watch the eagle fly. I looked up and, bam, the Auburn eagle nailed the glass on a luxury box…it looked like it’s next move was to land somewhere but it changed directions and almost landed in the crowd not far from the MSU band. Finally, it made it’s way back to the trainer on the 50-yard line. I thought, ‘this is going to be our day, the eagle couldn’t even make the correct flight’.

Usually football stadiums are loudest at night, so I wasn’t expecting Jordan-Hare to be as loud as it was. I’ve been to that stadium probably 20 times in my life, that is one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever heard there. They really got behind the team and made it into a hostile environment for Mississippi State.

View from where I was sitting

At halftime, I really felt like we had them right where we wanted them. I thought we’d be able to run all over their defensive line (which we kind of did) and pull out a sound win (which we didn’t). As loud as the crowd was, you could hear a pin drop when State did something good (I was sitting in an Auburn section). The last 10 minutes of the game were gut-wrenching to watch in person. If I went into the game thinking it was a toss-up, or Auburn was favored it wouldn’t have been so bad. But thinking we should win the game going in, it was a tough pill to swallow when Relf was stopped at the goal line. I was dejected as I watched Auburn celebrate like I never have before when beating State. There’s a burn on my face from the sun that will remind me of this game for the next few days.

Walking out of the stadium we ran into Vick Ballard’s parents. They looked pretty shocked. I was too, it took the walk back to the car before I was ready to talk again.

After the Cam Newton saga, I expected the Auburn fans to be a little more sour towards us than usual. But they weren’t. I never heard anything bad about State, or Dan Mullen (since most believe he alerted the press about the story). I sat among them at the game, and I went to a BBQ after the game with them, but no one said anything spiteful, or were they glad to get revenge on MSU. So I will hand it to the Auburn fans I came in contact with, it made losing the game not sting so bad.

Mississippi State at Auburn Preview

         vs.     

Auburn almost got beat by Utah State, but don’t think they no longer have good players, or that their coaches forgot how to coach. Texas didn’t go 5-7 last year because of a lack of talent or coaching…but with their 4-5 star players who came in with a sense of entitlement, that they could just put on the jersey and they’d win games. I’m not saying Auburn did that last week, but no one expected the game to be that close, and their players were just as surprised as everyone else that it happened. Auburn played 21 freshman including 13 true freshman, and they started 11 players who had never started before. Rest assured the Tigers coaching staff will have their full attention this week.

On Offense:
The Tigers can put some of their stellar athletes up front on the D-line and contend and make plays in the first half on raw talent and effort alone. Even though their defensive line looked awful last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if Relf gets sacked once or twice, maybe Ballard gets caught behind the line of scrimmage. At least in the first half, I think Auburn’s D will maintain State’s offense to a degree, hold them to 14-21 points.

As Auburn’s D-line wears down from the brutality of an SEC O-line they’ve never had to play a full game against (or never been in an SEC game) they will not be able to make as many plays. And as they are unable to pressure Relf, I think MSU’s WRs will be able to get open against Auburn’s poor secondary. Look for State to control the ball and run plenty in the second half, hopefully getting 5-7 yards per carry.

On Defense:
There’s no doubt Gus Malzahn will find a way to score. He’s still got playmakers in Emory Blake, Ontario McCaleb, Michael Dyer, and Philip Lutzenkirchen. He was good with Chris Todd in ’09, he’ll make Trotter into at least a middle of the road SEC QB on scheme alone. So as much pressure as I think State’s D-line can put on Trotter, which I think is a lot due to their very inexperienced O-line, Malzahn will run misdirection and who knows what to get his skill players in open space. I’m going to assume they will have at least 3-4 20+, maybe 30+ yard plays from scrimmage in the game.

State’s biggest advantage is State’s D-line vs. Auburn’s O-line. Auburn’s lineman will have a tough time keeping pressure off Trotter and MSU’s linebackers will be able to stay in coverage to see what kind of plays are developing instead of moving up to stop the run. I think this will be a huge advantage to the defense and will probably result in some INTs when Trotter is pressured.

Notes:

Auburn lost 45% of their letterman from last year (31 players)…State lost 35% of their letterman (24 players)

Auburn lost 49% of their rushing yards…..State lost 1%

Auburn lost 64% of their receiving yards….State lost 11%

Auburn lost 96% of their passing yards…….State lost 0%

Auburn lost the #1 (Newton) & #13(Fairley) overall NFL draft pick…..State lost the #32 (Sherrod) overall draft pick