Just one week ago, Mississippi State women's basketball looked to be in great shape to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs were 18-8 with a decent resume, and if they simply closed the year winning the games they were supposed to, they'd easily make the field.
Things aren't so simply now. State has dropped two-straight, a 15-point home loss to a middling Florida squad and a 50-point drubbing at the hands of Texas. They loss to the Gators isn't ideal, and while losing to Texas isn't an issue, losing by 50 is a rough look.
After those results, MSU, now 18-10 and 5-9 in the SEC, finds its NCAA Tournament hopes hanging in the balance.
ESPN has Mississippi State in the "Last Four In"
ESPN's Charlie Creme is still leaning on the positive side when it comes to State's postseason hopes. In his most recent bracketology, he has the Bulldogs as the top team in the "Last Four In." That would mean a play-in game for State, a situation they were in for Sam Purcell's first season in 2023. Creme has State playing Colorado in a matchups of 12-seeds with the winner advancing to play 5-seed North Carolina at the East Lansing site, hosted by 4-seed Michigan State.
CBS Sports has Mississippi State in the "First Four Out"
CBS Sports' Connor Groel isn't as optimistic on MSU. He's got the Bulldogs as the first team out of the field in his most recent bracketology. Groel calls State "the biggest loser" in this edition of his bracket, as the blowout loss to the Longhorns was what knocked State out of his projected field. Still, as the first team out, the path is still there for State to win their way into the Big Dance.
How can the Bulldogs reach the NCAA Tournament?
If State wants to feel safe about reaching the NCAA Tournament, their only shot is to win out in the regular season, which would mean beating a bad Texas A&M team and then upsetting No. 6 LSU. The win over the Aggies would merely be avoiding another damaging loss, but beating LSU would of course be a major statement.
And State may need a major statement at this point. MSU is a combined 3-9 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia are all nice, but overall State has lacked resume-boosting results. Their non-conference slate was weak, meaning they needed more in SEC play. A home Q3 loss to Missouri isn't helping. At No. 38 in the NET and No. 44 in WAB (a newer strength of record metric), their metrics aren't strong either.
Taking down the Tigers would end any questions about State being tournament-worthy. It would also get them to seven SEC wins, which tends to be the minimum needed for selection. If they can't beat LSU? They'll then enter the SEC Women's Basketball Tournament likely needing to make a run to have any hope at hearing their names called on Selection Sunday.