February has arrived which means we're just over a month away from the return of March Madness. It's full sprint ahead to the NCAA Tournament for much of college basketball, as fans are getting reaccustomed to bracketology and getting angry at Joe Lunardi.
Unfortunately for Mississippi State basketball, they're several laps behind the field. The Bulldogs have been a major disappointment, owning an 11-11 overall record to this point with a 3-6 SEC mark. Realistically, the postseason is out of reach and trying to envision a push to the Big Dance would be a fruitless endeavor.
But I'm not above partaking in such things, no matter how fruitless. Let us dream for a bit and wring-out the last tiny drop of hope we have for a Mississippi State tournament run. Because while the odds of that happening could not be lower, a path technically exists.
Mississippi State's NCAA Tournament resume isn't technically beyond repair
The word "technically" is doing A LOT of heavy lifting here, but we'll roll with it. Because technically, Mississippi State could still put together a resume worthy of NCAA Tournament consideration given where they're at and what's left on the schedule ahead.
State sits at No. 94 in the NET as of February 2, but that's not the number to focus on, as the committee does not factor it in for selection. What we do care about is the Bulldogs' "Resume Metric Average." That's taking three key metrics for the committee - KPI, Strength of Record, and Wins Above Bubble - and averaging them out. These three metrics specifically rate teams on the quality of their resume, not their on-court performance. Essentially, they don't care how "good" you are. They care how "good" your wins and losses are.
And when it comes to simply making the tournament, that's something the committee does put a fair bit of stock into. So where does State stand? The Bulldogs' RMA is at 82.7, not at all ideal but not something they couldn't possibly improve upon. Add some high-quality wins, and that value would jump quite a bit.
Speaking of quality wins, MSU owns a pair of Quad 1 victories according to the NET, at Texas and at LSU. Only one loss is considered "bad" by NET standards, their home defeat to Ole Miss, which just barely falls into the Quad 3 category. Now, with just a 2-10 record against the top two quadrants, MSU is obviously lacking the needed quantity of quality wins to receive consideration. But the SEC does provide plenty of chances to add those wins. Every remaining game for the Bulldogs is of Quad 1 or Quad 2 quality.
Otherwise, State has a strong overall Strength of Schedule (35) and has multiple wins away from home. They've hit some needed benchmarks. It's just a matter of getting enough wins, which to be fair, is far easier said than done for this team. But technically (there's that word again), it's not impossible.
What would Mississippi State have to do to make the NCAA Tournament?
Let us continue to suspend disbelief for a moment. What would it take for Mississippi State to reach the NCAA Tournament at this point? And to be clear, we're ignoring the "win the SEC Tournament" solution, which would of course give them an automatic bid. We're looking for a path to an at-large bid.
As suggested previously, the simple answer is "win". It's also the accurate answer. State's issue is mostly that they lack quality wins and, frankly, wins in general. Now short of winning-out, it's hard to guarantee an at-large bid for the Bulldogs, so let's instead go with the route for getting on the bubble and merely having a shot.
Every remaining opponent would be considered "quality" by the NET, meaning any wins moving forward would be beneficial. However, there are a trio of games - at Ole Miss, at South Carolina, and vs Missouri - where a loss could hurt the profile even if they aren't "bad" per the NET quadrants. Those need to be wins. From there, the Bulldogs would probably need four more.
Seven wins down the stretch, with no lower-NET losses, would have State at 18-13 to close the regular season. That tends to be the minimum mark needed entering conference tournament week to garner real consideration. They'd still likely need to do damage in the SEC Tournament, but it would have them in striking range.
Beyond that, it would certainly be beneficial to gain a truly marquee win. One thing that helps these fringe teams is owning a victory over a highly-seeded team. Beating eventual 2-seed Marquette is a big reason State made the field in 2023.
The Bulldogs have one real shot at that: their trip to Florida on March 3. Beating the Gators would be a needed statement. And MSU may need a statement like that. Earning no quality wins out of conference (a mark against the resume) makes going above and beyond all the more important. You have to give the committee a reason to believe you're worthy of a bid over the other bubble teams.
To call all of this a tall ask would be the understatement of the century. It would hinge on Bulldog basketball doing something they haven't shown the ability to this season, and that's playing well for an extended period of time and beating several quality teams.
Even at their best, they've been merely capable of competing against solid opponents. And we've rarely seen their best. The route to earning a tournament bid requires Mississippi State to be a team they are not. And keep in mind, the path laid out was ultimately just to be considered for the tournament.
Still, if you find yourself being the eternal optimist and want to believe for a few more games (or just one...), there's how the Bulldogs could do it. Just don't count on it.