Now that Week 10 has come and gone (with MSU winning) we can take another look at what has to happen for Mississippi State to win the West.
The good news is that the Bulldogs won and Alabama beat LSU – the two big things that needed to happen. An added bonus was Auburn beating Texas A&M. While Ole Miss losing to Arkansas didn’t have any positive benefits for State other than some Rebel ribbing this week, it’s not too big of a deal.
The picture has cleared up quite a bit from last week….
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Best case scenario: MSU wins out, LSU loses two of their last three: vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss and vs. Texas A&M.
This would give LSU three losses so the only possible tie would be with Bama and in this scenario we have beaten the Tide.
2nd best scenario: MSU wins out, LSU loses to Arkansas, Alabama beats Auburn, Arkansas beats Missouri.
This scenario comes in second because it doesn’t involve rooting for Ole Miss. Arkansas has to beat Missouri at the end of the year so they end up with a 5-3 SEC record and thus 4th place over Ole Miss and Texas A&M who would be 4-4. Alabama has to win the Iron Bowl so there’s a three way tie – the Bulldogs can’t be in a tie with only LSU. State wins a three way tie because them and Bama beat Arkansas but LSU didn’t, and MSU beat Bama.
3rd best scenario: MSU wins out, LSU loses to Ole Miss, Alabama beats Auburn.
This one requires one less game to go in the Dawgs favor, but then there’s the Ole Miss winning part. Most likely in this scenario, assuming Arkansas beats Mizzou and A&M beats Vandy, there would be not only a three way tie for 1st but a three way tie for 4th as well. That’s important since the 4th place team would determine the 1st place team – and it would be Ole Miss at 4-4 over UPig and A&M by virtue of their SEC West record of 3-3 which would be better than 2-4 by their counterparts. OM would allow State to win the West because they’d be the only team in the three way tie to beat the Rebs.
Bad scenarios (assuming MSU wins out):
- LSU wins out – they would win the West outright
- LSU loses to A&M – Alabama would win a three-way tie-breaker because A&M would finish 4th and they would be the only one to have beat the Aggies (this assumes A&M beats Vandy); or LSU and MSU would be tied if Auburn won the Iron Bowl and LSU beat MSU
- LSU loses to Arkansas or Ole Miss but Auburn wins the Iron Bowl – if LSU is only going to have two losses then State still needs a third dance partner because the head-to-head with the Tigers ain’t in our favor
Hey, it’s Week 11 and we’re still in it!