SEC Baseball: Evaluating the remaining schedules of the contenders

Jun 17, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators outfielder Buddy Reed (23) celebrates with pitcher Kirby Snead (13) after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Miami Hurricanes in the 2015 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 17, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators outfielder Buddy Reed (23) celebrates with pitcher Kirby Snead (13) after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Miami Hurricanes in the 2015 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports /
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Let’s take a look at how the remaining schedules of SEC baseball contenders shakes out.

With four weekends remaining in the SEC regular season, there are nine teams with realistic shots at grabbing one of the two divisional titles and probably eight of those with a realistic (within four games) shot of the overall title.  But there is great disparity in the strength of the remaining schedules for these contending teams.

In the Western Division, Texas A&M’s 12-6 conference mark gives it a 2 game lead in the standings over Mississippi State, Ole Miss and LSU, all with 10-8 records.  Alabama is also in contention for the West title at 9-9.  But based on conference records, the Aggies have the most difficult remaining schedule of the West contenders.

A&M’s remaining opponents (at Arkansas, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, Ole Miss) have a combined 40-32 SEC record. Ole Miss has the second most difficult remaining schedule in the West at 39-33 (LSU, at Georgia, Kentucky, at Texas A&M), followed by LSU at 36-36 (at Ole Miss, Arkansas, at Tennessee, Florida) and Alabama at 35-37 (MSU, at Auburn, at Arkansas, South Carolina.)

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Mississippi State’s remaining schedule is the easiest by far, with a combined opponents’ SEC record of 24-48.  The Bulldogs’ most difficult remaining weekend will be the upcoming road trip to Alabama.  Then comes Missouri at home, a road trip to Auburn and the final weekend home series against Arkansas. The Bulldogs also possess the tie-breaker with the two teams it shares second place with, Ole Miss and LSU, having won two of three games from both.  However, State would lose any tie-breaker with Texas A&M so they are effectively three games behind the Aggies for the SEC West title.

South Carolina’s 14-4 SEC record leads both the Eastern Division and the overall SEC race, but the Gamecocks have the most difficult remaining schedule of any team among the SEC contenders at 44-28. The Gamecocks host Florida this weekend in a huge series and finish up at Kentucky, hosting Texas A&M and at Alabama.

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Florida trails the Gamecocks at 13-5 and its opponents have a remaining record of 40-32. In addition to traveling to South Carolina, the Gators host Tennessee and Vanderbilt, and close at LSU. Vanderbilt and Kentucky are both 10-8 and have a lot of ground to make up with the East leaders, but both have slightly easier schedules. Vanderbilt’s opponents (Georgia, at Texas A&M, at Florida, Auburn) are 37-35 while the Wildcats remaining schedule (at Auburn, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Missouri) is the easiest of the East contenders at 33-39.

Mississippi State fans have much reason for optimism, given that the most difficult part of their conference is behind them and the remaining schedule seems quite manageable.  But the Bulldogs must take care of business and win a significant majority of these remaining games in order to host a regional, compete for a national seed and possibly win a divisional or conference regular season title.