Scenarios for all Eight Teams that have a shot at the CFB Playoffs
It’s championship Saturday in College Football – that means conference championship games and the last gasp of the regular season. There are eight teams that have a chance at the College Football Playoff in 2015:
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- Iowa
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Stanford
- North Carolina
I italicized Oklahoma because they don’t play today, and since they’re already in the top four and are Big 12 champs they are in. Ohio State is the only other team listed above that does not play today, but they’ll need a lot of help.
Here’s the scenarios for each team not named Oklahoma, and the schedule for today:
Ohio State needs Stanford and Alabama to lose. If that happens it would essentially eliminate the SEC and Pac 12 champions since USC and Florida are so far back, and allow for a non-champion…which Ohio State would be with only one loss. I think North Carolina winning the ACC would hurt Ohio State in this scenario because the Tar Heels would probably just replace Clemson’s spot, and Clemson would challenge Ohio State for fourth. It could come down to the strength of their losses in that scenario as they have similar schedules, so it may depend on if Michigan State wins the Big Ten or not.
3:00 on CBS: #18 Florida vs. #2 Alabama – win and they are in.
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6:45 on ESPN: #20 Southern Cal vs. #7 Stanford – need to win and have either Alabama or Clemson lose. I believe the strength of being a conference champion will leap-frog them over Ohio State, and there will be a loser in the Big Ten championship. That places them 5th so if Clemson or Alabama lose it would open up the needed spot for the Cardinal.
7:00 on ABC: #10 North Carolina vs. #1 Clemson – for Clemson, all they need to do is win. But North Carolina will need some help: first they have to win, secondly they need Alabama and Stanford to lose. If all three of those things happen, they should be able to leap-frog Ohio State with the ACC Championship in their back-pocket, but I don’t think they could surpass Stanford if they are Pac 12 champs so they need a few dominoes to fall….obviously, being at #10 now.
7:17 on FOX: #5 Michigan State vs. #4 Iowa – this is fun, even if it’s the Big Ten, because it’s a play-in game. Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. It’s reminiscent of the 2008 and 2009 SEC Championship games between Alabama and Florida (back when only two teams played for the national title during bowl season.
Speaking of Alabama and Florida, they’ll square off for the eighth time in the SEC championship game. It’s easily the most frequent match-up with LSU/Georgia happening three times being the second most. Bama/UF have met in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2009 and now 2015. Florida leads in those games 4-3, but they are a heavy underdog today.
The winner of those Bama/UF SEC championship games have gone on to win the national title four out of seven times: 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2009. Of course, if the Tide win this one they’ll have a shot in the College Football Playoffs.