Seven Year Review: SEC WEST Redzone Scoring Efficiency

Football is now just months away and we intend to take you all the way to kickoff and beyond here at MWN and today we continue looking at the “Seven Year Review”.  In the SYR we will look back at different stats and trends among the SEC West teams, ranking each team accordingly showing you trends and numbers, which should give you an idea what to possibly expect from teams this year within each category.  We will also see how the Bulldogs have fared in these categories and what they need to do to move up the charts.

Today we look at red zone scoring efficiency  and how well each of the SEC West teams have performed over the last seven years, but we will also compare the seven year trend to the last three.  The reason we will examine both is because of coaching changes and their tendencies once in the red zone.  How has it changed and what are the trends?  Let’s get right to it and find out.

Red Zone scoring efficiency is basically how well you score inside your opponents 20-yard line.  Inside the 20-yard line to the goal line is considered a “red zone” in football, and stats tend to change once in this zone.  Some teams do well scoring in the red zone, via touchdowns or field goals, while others tend to struggle.  The basic premise is in the red zone the field gets shorter and in turn helps the defense out as there is less field or room to guard.

So who has been the best over the last seven years and where did Mississippi State end up? Let’s look.

LSU has the best red zone efficiency over the last seven years, followed by Alabama, Texas A&M then Auburn.  All teams averaged over 83-percent inside the red zone and far out paced their touchdown to interception ratio.

Mississippi State came in dead last over this time frame with a very modest 78-percent and had the lowest touchdown to field goal ratio in the SEC West.  And, up until recently, if you think back, the Bulldogs have had some years where drives were stalled inside their opponents 20-yard line and chip shot field goals were missed.

But – let’s compare now to the 3-year trend as see how teams have fared recently.

This trend is really unlike any other trend, which is why I did a seven and a three year trend.  Coaches make crucial play calls inside the red zone and tendancies change over time, so we wanted to show you the vast difference a player or two could make or a play caller or two.  You can see now Auburn is number-one in the SEC West, with Alabama remaining steady at their same percentage.  Texas A&M is still on par, but LSU has dropped and the Bulldogs have risen.  Ole Miss has stayed about the same and Arkansas plummeted to the bottom of the West.

Trends and Flows:

Auburn, Alabama and T&M Shouldn’t Surprise Anyone:

It should not surprise anyone that these three teams are at the top of the SEC in RZSE (Red Zone Scoring Efficiency) over the last three years.  Since Gus Malzahn has come back to Auburn, his team is almost automatic inside the 20-yard line.  Malzahn and his staff does a great job of mixing the pass and the run, along with pre-snap motion to confuse teams and take advantage of almost every weakness they can find.

Alabama is just Alabama and we have shown over the last seven years they are the most complete offense in the SEC West.  So it should be no surprise they do well in the RZ as well.  Texas A&M has done nothing but score under Kevin Sumlin and it doesn’t matter where on the field.

LSU’s Drop and MSU’s Rise: 

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The LSU “drop” from first to fourth is strictly based on quarterback play and how they have fallen off over the last three years at that position.  Even Zach Mettenburger, (currently on an NFL roster ) was hit and miss once the Tigers were in the red zone.  Believe it or not, Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee performed better in the RZ than the current three years worth of Tiger quarterbacks.

For the Bulldogs it’s all about having better play makers, pass catchers and quarterbacks.  The Bulldogs have done nothing but get better the last three years in RZSE, but they still have a long ways to go to be in the upper-half of the division in this category.  They have to execute every time, even if that means knocking down a field goal once in the RZ.

Ole Miss and Arkansas Trending Down:

Arkansas has taken almost a six-point drop over the last three years and most of that is style and coaching.  Brett Bielema does things completely different than Bobby Patrino did. His run first approach, then play action pass game is going to take some time and his teams just aren’t as explosive as the Arkansas teams of just three or four years ago.

For Ole Miss, They have witnessed almost a three point drop during Freeze’s tenor, but here is where the rub lies for them.  In year one of the Freeze era the Rebs were a  crazy 91.1-percent once in the red zone.  They have fallen off every year since then, down to a modest 70.7-percent just this past year.

The reason? Well it’s the lack of a running game and threats once in the RZ.  People do not realize how valuable Barry Brunetti and Randall Mackey were for the Rebels back in 2012.  Their ability helped the Rebels open up the play book and kept teams guessing.  Now without a presence in the back field, teams almost know where Ole Miss is going with the football.  For Ole Miss to drive this percentage up, they will need more options in the backfield in 2015.