Starkville Super Regional: Getting to Know the Arizona Wildcats

The Mississippi State Baseball team is set to face off against the Arizona Wildcats in the Starkville Super Regional, and we help you better understand the Bulldogs’ opponent.

The Arizona Wildcats might be a Power 5 team, so if this were football, you might be expected to know a little more about the Mississippi State Baseball Team’s opponent in the Starkville Super Regional. But this is baseball, and it’s baseball that took place out west with teams that under performed all season long. My guess is you don’t know too much about the Wildcats.

So let me try to fill you in. Just like last week, there are a lot of people worrying about various things with the Wildcats. And there are legitimate reasons to be concerned.

Offensive Profile of the Arizona Wildcats

Team Batting Average: .291 compared to Mississippi State’s .312

Extra Base Hits: 161 compared to Mississippi State’s 190

Home Runs: 23 compared to Mississippi State’s 45

Slugging Percentage: .407 to Mississippi State’s .450

On Base Percentage: .383 to Mississippi State’s .389

Strike Outs: 391 to Mississippi State’s 360

Stolen Bases: 73 on 102 attempts compared to Mississippi State’s 51 on 63 attempts

In every statistical category except stolen bases, you have to give the edge to the Mississippi State baseball team for the Starkville Super Regional. And even with stolen bases, the Bulldogs are more efficient.

There are a few key players to watch for Arizona. Right Fielder Zach Gibbons is the team’s leading hitter with a .383 average and .470 on base percentage.

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There are only two players who Mississippi State fans should be worried about being home run threats during the Starkville Super Regional. First Baseman Ryan Aguilar led the team with 7 home runs on the year, and Third Baseman/Pitcher Bobby Dalbec had 6 for the Wildcats. Aguilar might be the Wildcats best overall hitter with the 7 home runs, he led the team with 46 RBIs, and sported a nice .314 batting average. Bobby Dalbec appears to be a feast or famine type player. He hit six home runs and drove in 37 runs, but he only hit .259 and struck out a whopping 73 times in 54 games played. At that pace in Major League Baseball, he would strike out 219 times in a 162 game season.

The biggest concern for Mississippi State baseball fans this weekend at the Starkville Super Regional will be what the Wildcats do once they reach base. Arizona has seven players who have stolen at least seven bases all season long.

Pitching Profile of the Arizona Wildcats

Team ERA: 3.53 compared to Mississippi State’s 3.35

Batting Average Against: .241 compared to Mississippi State’s .242

Extra Base Hits Allowed: 131 compared to Mississippi State’s 104

Home Runs Allowed: 32 compared to Mississippi State’s 27

Strike Outs: 401 compared to Mississippi State’s 552

Walks Allowed: 175 compared to Mississippi State’s 203

The pitching is a little more closely matched. I think the overall advantage though has to go to Mississippi State in the Starkville Super Regional. The Wildcats pitch to contact, and the Mississippi State baseball team can absolutely hammer the ball when they can hit it.

The pitchers to look out for will be the top starters for the Wildcats Nathan Bannister and J.C. Cloney. Bannister was as good as they came this season. He registered a 10-2 record with a 2.56 ERA. The problem for the Wildcats is they had to overwork him to get to Starkville. He pitched on Friday and Monday of the Lafayette Regional and threw almost 200 pitches in those games. I don’t imagine Bannister will pitch any earlier than Saturday of the Starkville Super Regional and the Arizona coaching staff may hold him until Sunday if they should win the game on Friday, just to give him a little more rest.

J.C. Cloney would be he obvious candidate o go Friday if Bannister doesn’t. Cloney has a 6-4 record and a 2.86 ERA. He should be well rested after only throwing only 3.2 innings last weekend. He was rocked for 7 runs, six of which were earned, by the Ragin’ Cajuns.

The closer who registered the win in the Regional Final is the man who strikes out so much at the plate, Bobby Dalbec. The strike out machine doesn’t produce a ton of strike outs on the mound, but he does pretty well. Dalbec has a 9-4 record with a 3.28 ERA and 61 strike outs in 71 innings.

Why the Bulldogs will win

I’m taking the Bulldogs to win the Starkville Super Regional, and I really think they will get it done in two games. There are a few reasons why.

I don’t think there is any way the Arizona coaches will run Bannister out there on three days rest after having already thrown nearly 200 on the previous Friday and Saturday. Arizona is a good offensive club, not a great one. They remind me of the Auburn offense, which is one Dakota Hudson completely shut down. And with that being the case, I don’t think Cloney can match him.

This means they’ll go for broke and throw Bannister on four days rest on Saturday. He’ll be good for the first few innings, but then the Mississippi State bats will start hammering him around the third or fourth inning because he simply won’t have anything left in the tank.

How this prediction falls apart

It falls apart if the Bulldogs lose the first game of the Starkville Super Regional. If Cloney is able to go pitch for pitch with Hudson, or if Hudson comes out in a funk like he did against SEMO, then the Arizona coaches can hold Bannister until Sunday. He’d be close to full rest, and could probably give six quality innings.

Even if the Bulldogs lose Friday, I still think they have a really good chance to win the series like they did against Florida. It just wouldn’t be ideal.

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The Starkville Super Regional should be a lot of fun. Two quality teams playing for a chance to head to Omaha. And if the Bulldogs can play like they are capable, there should be some celebrating to do on Saturday or Sunday.

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