Mississippi State Baseball: What are the Current Expectations for 2016?

With half of the SEC schedule behind it, what exactly are the expectations for the Mississippi State baseball team as it heads into the home stretch of the 2016 schedule?

The expectations for the 2016 Mississippi State baseball team have changed repeatedly over the course of the season. Figuring out just how good or how bad this team really is has been difficult to determine.

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The preseason rankings told us the Bulldogs would be in the regional hosting conversation. The Mississippi State baseball team was in the mid teens according to most preseason polls, and that meant the Bulldogs should have a chance to host a regional.

Many MSU fans were skeptical, and the mixed results of the nonconference schedule in February and March did nothing to alleviate those concerns. The Bulldogs lost two games the opening weekend to Florida Atlantic, the team had a very mixed performance in Los Angeles in the Dodger Stadium Classic, but swept an Oregon team ranked tenth in the country at the time. They followed that up with midweek losses to Eastern Kentucky and Oral Roberts.

It was at this point, most looked at our first six SEC series and began to wonder if the Mississippi State baseball team would come away with more than six wins in conference play to start the SEC schedule. Some even wondered if this team would make a regional.

But after the two massively disappointing midweek losses, the Bulldogs surprised everyone by taking two of three from Vanderbilt in Nashville. Then they did the same thing to Georgia and Ole Miss. As great as those wins were, we assumed a reality check was coming when the Bulldogs headed to Gainseville.

Mississippi State baseball fans were hoping to get one game against the Gators. And when Dakota Hudson fell apart in the fifth inning, it didn’t look good to get one. But the Bulldogs pounded the Gators on Saturday and got just enough offense on Sunday to take the series.

After the huge upset, the accolades came rolling in for the Bulldogs. There was talk of this being the best team in the country. There was talk of a national seed. The Bulldogs just needed to win their series against the Aggies.

And then the Bulldogs got swept.

Mississippi State went from a team with a one game lead in the West to third in the division and two games back of the team that just swept them. And now we have to recalculate what to expect from this team going forward and how it will affect the Mississippi State baseball postseason chances.

The Bulldogs currently have a 24-12-1 record, sit in the top 10 of every poll except the Coaches, and have an RPI of 17. The Bulldogs are still very much in the conversation to host. This weekend will have a big say if they stay there.

LSU struggled early in the season but has surged toward the top of the SEC West standings. They’re playing their best baseball of the season right now, and the Bulldogs have always struggled to play well in Baton Rouge. Leaving LSU without getting swept would be all this Mississippi State baseball team needs to keep hosting and possible national seed talk alive.

If they can win at least one game against the Tigers, the Bulldogs would be right at .500 in conference play. Considering how difficult the schedule was the first six series of the season, that’s not too bad. The Bulldogs had hopes of getting out these games with maybe 11 or 12 wins based on the first four series, but expecting the team to play as well as they were for the entire SEC schedule might have been asking a bit much.

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The good news is the schedule softens up considerably after this weekend. Getting a national seed would probably be shot if the Bulldogs got swept by LSU, but hosting would still be a possibility. But all of this requires no slip ups in the final four series of the season.

The Bulldogs finish the SEC portion of the schedule at Alabama, home against Missouri, at Auburn, and home against Arkansas. MSU should win every one of those series, and the only one that might even be debatable is Alabama.

But let’s not kid ourselves, based on the way those four teams have played, losing a series to any of them would be a disappointment. Alabama has managed to stay alive in the West with wins over LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee, but they have also lost series to Kentucky and Georgia. They should still win that series.

Missouri, Auburn, and Arkansas offer the best opportunities for the Mississippi State baseball program to get sweeps. Those four teams are a combined 13-32 in SEC play. Missouri, along with Alabama, is one of the worst hitting teams in the conference. Auburn and Arkansas are two of the worst pitching teams in the conference.

To host a regional, the Bulldogs will likely need 18 SEC wins. The only nonconference game they could afford to lose would be the Governor’s Cup against Ole Miss. That means winning at least one game against LSU and going 9-3 in the last four series of SEC play.

To be a national seed, I think the Bulldogs need at least 20 wins. Getting there would likely require a series win against LSU, and going 10-2 against the last four SEC opponents.

My prediction is the Mississippi State baseball season ends the season with around 36 to 38 wins overall and 18 or 19 wins in SEC play. They’ll fall short of a national seed, but they still end up hosting a regional. It’s a pretty good place to be in despite the gloom and doom talk after Super Bulldog Weekend.

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