Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against The Spread, Week 5


One third of the 2015 season is in the books. And I have had a really up and down year with these picks. So keep that in mind if you plan to use any of these picks for any actual wager. I had a pretty good week against the spread in week 4, and a great week straight up. Let’s see if I can do it again, and get above the 50% clip against the spread.

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To the picks!

Last Week

Against the Spread: 5-3
Straight Up: 7-1

Year to Date

Against the Spread: 12-13
Straight Up: 19-6

South Carolina at Missouri (-2.5)

Missouri had been a 4 point favorite before news of the Maty Mauk suspension broke. I think that might actually help the Tigers. So I’ll go with them.

Prediction: Missouri 20 – South Carolina 17

Alabama at Georgia (-2.5)

This marks the end of one of the most impressive streaks in college football. Alabama will be an underdog for the first time in 72 games. And I think it is the right call because I just don’t have enough faith in the Alabama quarterback situation for  them to put up points on this Georgia defense.

Prediction: Georgia 24 – Alabama 17

San Jose St. at Auburn (-20)

I really shouldn’t be struggling with this pick the way that I am. I mean, an SEC team giving 20 points to San Jose St. should be a no brainer. But here I am. I am not sure I have enough confidence in Auburn to score 20 more points than anyone at this point. I think they win, but I don’t think they cover.

Prediction: Auburn 27 – San Jose St. 17

Ole Miss (-7) at Florida

There might not be a tone of points scored in this game. Both teams play really good defense. Florida has serious issues on the offensive side of the ball, and I think that will be the difference in the game that gives Ole Miss the victory. But I think Florida will put up a fight.

Prediction: Ole Miss 24 – Florida 20

Eastern Michigan at LSU (-44.5)

Never would I recommend giving this many points Covering 45 points is asking a lot. LSU is capable of covering, but it’s still asking a lot. If there were a over/under on if Leonard Fournette breaks 200 yards rushing, I’d be all over that if I were you.

Prediction: LSU 41 – Eastern Michigan 3

Arkansas at Tennessee (-7)

This game had all the makings of being a matchup of up and coming teams looking to make some noise in their division. Now, it is to see which coach’s seat gets cooled off some and the other’s go up to scalding. And to be honest, the fourth quarter of this game could be one of the most entertaining in the history of college football. Not because it will be so well played, but because each team might make mistakes to lsoe the game on multiple occasions. I think Arkansas figures out a way to pull the game off.

Prediction: Arkansas 27 – Tennessee 21

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee St. (-1.5)

Vanderbilt is a 1.5 point dog to MTSU? Really Vandy? Surely Vanderbilt won’t take another nonconference loss to a team an SEC school is supposed to beat, right?

Prediction: Vanderbilt 31 – MTSU 21

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-6)

The line has moved around quite a bit on our Bulldogs’ game this week. It started at 6.5 and moved up to 7 and has gone down to 6 as of this morning. More people are betting on the Bulldogs. I don’t know if those people have faith in Mississippi State to cover or to straight up win. But the Bulldogs are the smart play. Here is everything that is making the Aggies a nearly touchdown favorite against the Bulldogs.

  • Win over Arizona State
  • Played at Kyle Field

When you consider the fact Arizona State looks mediocre at best now with a 2-2 record, and the fact Texas A&M has not played that well at home since joining the SEC, you have to go with state. Texas A&M is 3-7 against SEC opponents at home since joining the SEC, and they have yet to beat a ranked SEC team at home in that same time frame. The Aggies should have one of the best home field advantages in the country, but they haven’t so far.

Prediciton: Mississippi State 34 – Texas A&M 27