Way Too Early NCAA Tournament Seeding Prediction For Lady Bulldogs


With us nearing the ever present end of basketball season, fans of the #14 Mississippi State Women’s Basketball squad shift towards the SEC Tournament in North Little Rock, AR, and the 2015 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. This year, the NCAA Tournament is pretty much a done deal for the Mississippi State team as we are three games away from the end of the regular season. With those three games being @ Alabama, @ #2 South Carolina, and vs Ole Miss, it is very possible for the Bulldogs to go 2-1 during this stretch.

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The importance of seeding in this tournament is not only the ease of opponents that you will face, it is also determines whether you host the first two games of the tournament. The top-four seeds in each region host the first two games of the tournament in their arenas. That means if the Bulldogs get that illustrious four-seed or above, then we will host our first NCAA Tournament game in school history.

The Bulldogs statistics are hampered by one thing, even with the great start of the season and only 4 losses on the record. The non-conference schedule of the #14 Lady Bulldogs is not the toughest in the world. According to Warren Nolan, the Bulldogs only have a RPI of 32 on the year, with a predicted RPI of 33 at the end of the season. Now RPI is not necessarily the end-all-be-all for the season, but it is a huge factor in determining seeds for the tournament. Another big determining factor is the strength of schedule. Even with the tough conference slate that includes 4 ranked squads, the Bulldogs’ SOS is a measly 93. That’s way too low for a team this talented. now we can argue all day that the schedule was made years in advance, and that numbers don’t do it justice. But one thing is for certain, a SOS of 93 is not going to get you very high seed unless you go undefeated.

My prediction is based on the Bulldogs going 2-1 to end the regular season, and reaching the semi-finals of the SEC Tournament. If these things do come to pass, then I could see the Bulldogs be either a 4 or 5-seed in the 2015 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. That means we are right on the bubble for hosting the first two games of the NCAA Tournament in the Hump. This is important because the Bulldogs have only lost one game, in Double OT to a tough LSU squad, in the Hump all year. We have made the Hump one of the toughest places to play in the nation with over 5,000 in attendance the last game (4th largest in school history).