Arkansas doesn't deserve benefit of the doubt over Mississippi State football

Last Friday, SEC media predictions for the 2024 college football season were released, and Mississippi State football’s standing in those predictions was par for the course. Despite there no longer being divisions in the league, the tradition of voting Mississippi State last in the SEC West was effectively maintained. MSU was picked 15th in the conference, ahead of only Vanderbilt. 

One spot ahead of the Bulldogs were an old SEC West rival, the Arkansas Razorbacks. The SEC media believe an Arkansas team that finished 4-8 last season with a disgusting 7-3 home loss to MSU and enters the 2024 season with a multitude of questions and a lame duck head coach in Sam Pittman will, ultimately, be a better squad than the Bulldogs in their first season under Jeff Lebby.

And though they’re just one spot higher in the pecking order and bickering over insignificant rankings, particularly for teams that few expect to be good, is largely futile, allow me to rant a bit. Because this isn’t just a one-off prediction from voters given the changes happening in Starkville. If that were the case, I'd show some grace. But it’s been commonplace for Arkansas to be voted ahead of State at Media Days for years, and it’s absolutely absurd. 

Arkansas once had a long run of, frankly, dominance over MSU. From 1995 to 2011, State won the annual matchup just twice. And believe me, if that was indicative of how the series was still going today, you wouldn’t hear a peep out of me about. But since the firing of Bobby Petrino in 2012, the series has turned heavily in Mississippi State’s favor. 

The Bulldogs are 9-3 against the Razorbacks in that span. State has finished ahead of Arkansas in the SEC standings eight out of twelve years. State went to 11 bowl games in that span while Arkansas appeared in just five (they were selected to six). The Bulldogs have four seasons or nine or more wins compared to just one for the Razorbacks. State has finished the year ranked on four occasions while Arkansas has finished ranked just once. 

There is literally no conversation to be had. Mississippi State has been the far superior program to Arkansas for over a decade now. But despite that, the SEC media continues to give Arkansas the benefit of the doubt that they’ll end most seasons ahead of the Bulldogs. 

Including this year’s SEC Media Days predictions, Arkansas will have been predicted to finish ahead of Mississippi State in the SEC standings eight out of 13 years, including each of the last four. 

Now with all that said, I do want to be fair and say that I believe teams should be evaluated on who they are each season rather than solely using history. But even with that in mind, how can one say confidently Arkansas will be better than MSU? 

Both programs are relying on transfer QBs and lineman. Neither are running out skill talent that’s proven at the SEC level. The Hogs do have some legitimate talent on the DL, but the rest of that unit has questions. Sure, we don’t know what Jeff Lebby is as a head coach, but are we confident in saying he’ll be worse than Sam Pittman after what we saw last season? 

Perhaps the return of Bobby Petrino, albeit as a coordinator, is supposed to return Arkansas to their “rightful place” ahead of the Bulldogs. After all, it was his firing in 2012 that allowed State to jump ahead. But are we actually sure that Bobby Petrino fixes their offense and doesn’t rip the program to shreds as he attempts to pull a coup? 

When both programs have their fair share of questions, defaulting to which team faces the other at home (State hosts Arkansas in 2024) and recent history makes the most sense.

And again, we have more than a decades-worth of evidence to definitively say which program is better, but voters insist on hanging on to the ounce of good reputation the Hogs built up throughout the Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino era. 

At what point does everyone sit back and realize the old days of Arkansas football, and Mississippi State football for that matter, are over? Arkansas is no longer a consistent bowl team. They’re no longer a team that can occasionally vault into the SEC’s upper tier. You can point to the deep pockets of their boosters and tout potential all you want. It hasn’t translated to the field. 

Meanwhile, Mississippi State is the team that finds itself regularly reaching the postseason and delivering consistently solid results. Despite media perception, they aren’t the 2000s Bulldogs that were perennially the Vanderbilt of the West. Yes, State is coming off a down season, but they still managed to beat and finish ahead of Arkansas!

Arkansas is no longer clearly ahead of Mississippi State. The results, in fact, suggest the exact opposite.