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What a market-value SEC West contract means

By Josh Barnhill

Sep 17, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen during the second half of a game against the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Mississippi State 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen during the second half of a game against the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Mississippi State 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dan Mullen is being paid north of $4 million per year, which is the market value of a SEC West coach. So what kind of expectations should that bring?

There are a few different ways you could look at Dan Mullen’s $4 million per year contract to run the Mississippi State football program.

1. Thank you for the 2014 season

He was awarded a hefty raise after going 10-3 in 2014 and reaching No. 1 for five weeks….going from $2.85 million to $4 million per year. Clearly he was due a raise at that juncture.

“Thank you” for the 2014 season is no reason for a raise, however. The contract was for four years so that’s $16+ million over the life of it. You don’t get $16 million for one really good season – a season that while great by MSU standards, should not merit $16 million of debt to a man….especially when no championships were won. Not even an Egg Bowl or a bowl game. Contracts are proactive, not retroactive.

2. We want more seasons like 2014

MSU was paying Dan just shy of $3 million for several years prior to 2014. Those years featured 7-6, 8-5 and 7-6 finishes. So when he elevated the bar, MSU elevated his pay.

The raise was because the school wanted to keep Mullen…..so we could have more seasons like 2014. I don’t necessarily mean ascending to No. 1 although that would be nice. I mean competing for the SEC West in late November and winning double digit games (not every year but every third year or so – you get the drift).

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3. It’s the market value for a SEC West coach.

We are lucky and unfortunate enough to compete in the same division as LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas and Ole Miss. It’s a murder’s row, and to compete in this division you have to ante up. So we did with a $4 million salary for our head football coach. Every school in the West pays their coach at least that much.

So what are the expectations of such a salary in this division. Let’s look back at the recent history since the West has become the Goliath of college football, starting in 2007 when LSU won the national title….giving us nine years of data (2007-2015) in which the West has won six national championships and played for eight.

  1. No SEC West team has missed a bowl game since 2013 (Arkansas)
  2. Only 10 out of 58 (17%) of SEC West teams since 2007 have missed a bowl game (Ole Miss: 3, Arkansas: 3, MSU: 2, Auburn: 2)
  3. Since 2007, the only SEC West coach to miss a bowl game that was not in their first or last year (because they were subsequently fired) was Houston Nutt in 2011.

Let me re-phrase that last sentence: since 2007, no SEC West coach who wasn’t in their first season has missed a bowl game and not been fired except Houston Nutt in 2011. That includes Gene Chizik who won a national championship two years prior.

I guess you could say MSU is a lot like Ole Miss in terms of resources so we should keep Mullen like they did with Nutt. But that’s, well, it’s….not a good argument.

If you are paying market value for a coach, shouldn’t you expect him to perform to market standards? If he doesn’t, shouldn’t you proceed with the expected practice within the industry?

That’s how the business world works….with people who are making less than 2% of what a SEC West coach is making and have mouths to feed. Yet we feel sorry for these coaches?

Next: MSU is in a two-year rebuild

Closing statement

There are exceptions to every rule. And with every decision you have to make the one that’s best for your organization (in this case, ‘football program’). The best thing for MSU is probably not firing Dan Mullen…..it’s him leaving on his own so we don’t have to pay a buyout.

Give me a Dan Mullen who wants to be at Mississippi State and willing to make the necessary staff changes – I’ll keep him no matter the outcome of the final five games despite the industry standard.

Give me the Dan Mullen who doesn’t want to be in Starkville and is actively seeking to find a way out of town, and I’d rather take my chances with someone else.

MSU is the husband and Dan Mullen is our bride. Looked good coming down the aisle but she’s cheated on us a few times now. We put up with the running around because she was still fun to be married to, so we stuck it out and didn’t want her to leave. But now she’s totally bored with us and isn’t doing her part in the marriage. The cheating is still going on. We’re down to the last straw or it’ll be time for a divorce no matter how bad we want to work it out.

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