Tonight the Bulldogs of Mississippi State take on the Tigers of LSU in Death Valley.
Peeps, tonight is another big game. Welcome to life in the SEC, where almost every week is a New Year’s Six quality matchup. And as is usually the case when the Tigers play at home, it’s a night game. The question is: What do the Dawgs need to do to walk away with a very rare road win against LSU? Here’s what I think:
The Keys:
1. Run the “Darn” Football: State did a great job of this last week, rushing for 290 yards. The problem, as I documented in ACQB on Monday, is that nearly 200 of those yards came from Nick Fitzgerald at the QB position. State absolutely must find a way to run it with the running backs for the rushing attack to be viable long term against great defenses like LSU.
We all know the biggest issue is the inside zone run with Holloway between the tackles. 15 carries with an average yards per carry of 3.2 isn’t going to cut it. It’s time to find out if Aeris Williams can become the primary RB who’s capable of carrying it 15-20 times to game or if we need to give Dontavian Lee, Nick Gibson or Alec Murphy a shot.
2. Stop the Run: I’m not going to sugarcoat it: This is going to be a Line of Scrimmage game. Not only does LSU have QB issues, but the forecast indicates a strong chance of rain. That leads one to a very obvious conclusion: LSU is going to pound the ball with the best RB in the nation, Leonard Fournette. Then when he needs a breather, they’ll hand it off to Derrius Guice. Both are big, bruising backs that wear down a defense as the game progresses.
State is going to have to load up the box and force first time starting QB Danny Etling to throw. The Dawgs’ front 7 has to be physical and impose their will. Fournette & Guice will get their yards, but we need to limit the explosive plays. Letting those guys rip off a couple of 45 yard or 70 yard TD runs will be disastrous. Make them earn every inch of real estate.
3. QB Play: Like Keys 1 & 2, I’m going with the super obvious. QB play is going to be huge in this game. LSU’s Etling is getting his first collegiate start ever. State’s Nick Fitzgerald is getting his first ever collegiate road start. Saying that Death Valley is one of the most hostile, intimidating football environments imaginable is an understatement.
Both QBs are going to have to control their emotions and manage the game, especially early during the potentially heavy rains. Avoiding bad throws and interceptions is going to be crucial. The QB who can handle the environment best will give his team a much greater chance of getting the W.
X-Factor: Keep an eye on Fitz running the ball. His legs could become a big weapon tonight, especially if it’s raining. A long TD run like Dak Prescott had at Death Valley in 2014 could be the play that turns the game for State.
More from Mississippi State Football
- Meeting the Opponent: Week 4 – South Carolina Gamecocks
- Mississippi State football vs LSU: The good, bad, and ugly
- The Wednesday Wrap: Maybe Mississippi State Football Coach Zach Arnett shouldn’t do it his way
- Mississippi State football history vs. South Carolina: Records, streaks, and more
- Mississippi State football bowl projections after Bulldogs crushed by LSU
Final Thoughts:
This is going to be a brutally physical game. If you like old school smashmouth offense and a defensive battle, you’ll love this one. The linemen on both teams are going to have to step up big time. Nick Fitzgerald needs to settle in quickly. I’d like to see him carry the ball on the first play of the game and take the hit to help him get rid of the inevitable nerves. Jordan Thomas may be a big key tonight as a blocker. Defense absolutely has to wrap up and tackle well. Letting Fournette & Guice break tackles and get YAC will be a killer.
State really needs a feature back who isn’t 5’8″ and 165 pounds to emerge. The flip side is MSU head coach Dan Mullen has to commit to feeding a big back 15+ times. If there was ever a night that calls for it, this one is likely it. State isn’t going to ram it down LSU’s throat in the rain with Holloway. The only way the Dawgs will run it well enough to win is by committing to A-Train, D-Lee, Gibson, or Murphy. If we finish the night and those guys top out at a combined 2-5 carries, I think we lose.
Hail State!