Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against The Spread, Week 7

In Week 5, I was on fire! In week 6, I was the very definition of mediocre. I went 3-3 last week against the spread. I continue to do pretty well straight up, but the real glory is against the spread. So time to get back to my winning ways.

A slightly larger slate of games this week. I have 7 to pick, and the games are much better in quality, or at least they should be.

To the picks!

Last Week

Against the Spread: 3-3
Straight Up: 5-1

Year to Date

Against the Spread: 21-18
Straight Up: 29-10

Auburn (-1.5) at Kentucky

Schedule anomaly alert. This game is on Thursday, and this piece publishes on Friday. So just to prove I didn’t pick the winner in hindsight, I posted a tweet with my score on Thursday so I could not be accused of doing such a thing.

Personally, I just don’t see how Auburn can be favored against any team, especially on the road. I took the Wildcats. If I I think about it, I’ll come back and tell why I was right or wrong before this piece publishes.

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Prediction: Kentucky 17 – Auburn 13

And I was wrong. I didn’t watch the game because I was busy watching the Dodgers lose to the Mets because no one decided to cover third base after a walk sent Daniel Murphy to second base. And since no one was covering third base, he ran over there to it. He scored on a sac fly. I’m still mad.

Ole Miss (-10.5) at Memphis

This game fascinates me on many levels. Ole Miss is the clearly superior team in terms of overall talent. And when the game was scheduled, this looked like a game Ole Miss should roll to an easy win. But then Justin Fuente took the huddled mass that was Memphis football and has made them into a quality program. It’s not the easy win it should have been. I was curious what Ole Miss people thought about it, so I took a quick informal and very unscientific poll on Twitter. Here is what some Ole Miss people had to say.

And then Vegas Rebs went into lots of detail.

So they have pretty much the same feelings as I do. It’s a game Ole Miss should win, but can’t be assumed.

I REALLY want to pick Memphis. Paxton Lynch is probably a better pro prospect than any quarterback starting in the SEC right now, and that includes our own Dak Prescott. The dude can sling a football. And the Ole Miss secondary has looked very vulnerable without Conner back there.

But I don’t like the defense of Memphis at all. They give up huge chunks of yards and lots of points. And for that reason, I have to go with Ole Miss to win, but I don’t think they win by 11 points to cover.

Prediction: Ole Miss 45 – Memphis 41

Alabama (-4) at Texas A&M

This game features teams that do really well at things the other team has a really hard time stopping. I keep seeing people say this will be a game in the 20’s. I don’t see it. Both teams are going to exploit the other team’s weaknesses

Texas A&M can’t stop the run. Expect Derrick Henry to have a near career game.

Alabama is not very good in the secondary. Kyle Allen and Christian Kirk will look like Montana and Rice.

The difference? Myles Garrett. The phenom is going to force Jake Coker into multiple mistakes and the Aggies take advantage and pull off the upset.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38– Alabama 31

Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-2.5)

It seems every week South Carolina is involved in the most unwatchable game in the SEC. This week is no different. Loser of this game gets the distinction of being the worst team in the SEC.

I’m picking Vanderbilt. Surely picking Vandy to win an SEC game on the road won’t come back to bite me in the butt, right?

Prediction: Vanderbilt 20 – South Carolina 7

Florida at LSU (-7.5)

LSU was only a 4.5 point favorite when the line opened on this game, then the Will Grier news broke, and it has jumped up to over a touchdown. Here’s the thing. I think Treon Harris can still win this game.

I’ve always believed there was going to be a game where LSU sleeps walk their way through a game because it should win, and they cough it up. This game is the perfect recipe.

Florida is going to shut anything Brandon Harris will contribute completely out of the game, and Leonard Fournette will look like a good, solid college player instead of the other worldly freak he is.

Prediction: Florida 24 – LSU 21

Missouri at Georgia (-16)

Despite the fact both teams are 4-2, the loser will likely be eliminated from any hopes of winning an SEC East title. And Georgia might be reeling right now, but Missouri just looks as bad as anything I have ever seen on offense.

Having said that, the reason they have won 4 games is because the defense is legit. Not legit enough to win, but easily legit enough to keep this under 16 points. This seems like the easiest pick of the week.

Prediction: Georgia 21- Missouri 10

Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State (-13.5)

Mississippi State should win. That’s why Louisiana Tech is the Homecoming Game. But Mississippi State has always had trouble with the Tech version of the Bulldogs. And this game makes me a little more nervous than it normally would.

Louisiana Tech is a decent team. I expect them to give Mississippi State a good game, but I think our Bulldogs win and cover on a late garbage time touchdown.

Prediction: Mississippi State 31 – Louisiana Tech 17

Next: Top 10 Wins in the Dan Mullen Era