How the 2nd College Football Playoff Top 10 Rankings Should Look

Last week I was pleasantly surprised when the initial College Football Playoff Rankings looked similar to what I thought they should be. The committee and I agreed on the top 3 exactly, all the top six and 8 of the top 10.

This week, the biggest thing to look for will be how much teams are penalized for a loss. In Week 1, Mississippi State and Florida State were the clear #1 and #2 since they were undefeated and had a couple of good wins. Every team from #3 to #17 had one loss, and then the 2-loss teams entered the rankings at #18, 19, 20, 21 and 22. So there was a clear distinction how many losses you have determining where you were ranked, or was that just how it turned out for that week?

I’m really looking forward to seeing the fallout of the Auburn/Ole Miss game. That was #3 vs. #4. Is that great road win enough for Auburn to jump Florida State? How far will Ole Miss drop as they are clearly the best 2-loss team in the country.

Here’s how I see it, which is based on who you beat and who you lost to, with the “eye test” being the tie-breaker:

*rankings mentioned based on latest AP poll

1. Mississippi State – not much doubt here. A win vs. #3 and a win vs. #14 in the toughest environment to play in the country. Plus undefeated in the best conference.

2. Auburn – I’m of the opinion that a good win cancels out a good loss (maybe it takes two good wins to cancel out a bad loss). Well, Auburn has two ROAD wins over top 12 teams, and a five touchdown route of #14. Their only loss is on the road vs. #1. The Tigers deserve to be up here.

3. Florida State – last week I said I didn’t think they deserved to be jumped by any teams who weren’t undefeated since they are the defending national champs. Well I’m changing that stance to they don’t deserve to be out of the top 4 until they lose since they are the defending champs. Put simply, they don’t have the same caliber of wins as Auburn, not to mention it took Clemson and Notre Dame screwing up late in the red zone for them to win those games….at home.

4. Oregon – I had Oregon #4 last week too, and they cemented that with a route of Stanford, the team that has had their number the last few years. With wins vs. #7 Michigan State and at #18 UCLA they are deserving. Their loss to #21 Arizona at home hurts a little, but not enough to knock them out.

5.  Kansas State – the Wildcats move up three spots for me this week. Their only loss is to #3 Auburn and they have a road win over #16 Oklahoma plus they have been pretty dominating in the Big 12.

6. Alabama – the Tide had the week off, but the song remains the same: they haven’t beaten anyone. A road loss to #12 Ole Miss doesn’t hurt much, but #24 West Virginia, a 3-loss team, is their best win. Florida and Texas A&M, unranked with 3-losses each, are their other “good” wins. That’s not going to do it right now – beat #14 LSU on the road this week and it will be a different story.

7. Michigan State – the Spartans are in the same boat as Alabama – they lost on the road to a good team, but haven’t beaten anyone other than #15 Nebraska. I give the edge to Bama on the “eye test”.

8. TCU – their only loss is on the road at #10 Baylor, and they have wins vs. #16 Oklahoma and at #24 West Virginia. This looks like a pretty good team, but it’s going to be tough sledding in the balanced Big 12.

9. Arizona State – a 62-27 home loss to UCLA is hard to get past, but they just beat #20 Utah and have good wins over USC and Stanford. The Sun Devils host Notre Dame this week.

10. Baylor – two teams dropped out of my top ten and two teams leap-frogged Baylor so they stay at #10. They whipped Kansas this week but I’m not sure that really means anything. A win vs. #6 TCU at home and a road loss to #24 West Virginia.

Others:

• Notre Dame just missed the top 10. They still don’t have a win over a current top 25 team and have had some close games against mediocre teams. A close loss does not get you in.
• Ole Miss is in the same boat as Notre Dame right now. Loss to Auburn kind of cancels out the Alabama win in terms of the playoff picture, so you’re left with the LSU loss. I’d have them at #12, it will be interesting to see where the committee puts them.