MSU Gameday Forecast: The School Down South Edition
Update: 9:45 AM Friday
Latest model runs have been more aggressive from the NAM as the GFS has slowed down the speed of the system. Intensity seems to be around the same as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the remnants of a tropical disturbance move towards the North and get absorbed by the trough moving into the area. The amount of rainfall might be less than what was thought in the previous discussion. I am adjusting the numbers of the forecast accordingly.
PRE-GAME
12:00 PM: 86 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds SSW from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 60%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 60%.
2:30 PM: 86 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds SSW from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 60%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 60%.
4:30 PM: 85 °F, overcast, winds S from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 50%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 40%.
Gametime
Kickoff (6:30 PM): 83 °F, overcast, winds S from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 50%, chance of lighting within 5 miles 40%
Halftime (8:00 PM): 79 °F, overcast, winds S from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 40%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 30%.
End of regulation (9:30 PM): 77 °F, overcast, winds S from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 40%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 30%.
Post-game
Leaving campus and headed home (10:30 PM): 76 °F, overcast, winds S from 5-10 mph, chance of rain 30%, chance of lightning within 5 miles 20%.
Previous Discussion
Welcome to another great season of Mississippi State football here at Maroon and White Nation. Now as most all of you know, the weather is an important part of any game day experience here in Starkville. That’s what I’m here for; to provide you with the best forecast possible to help you better plan your tailgate to make it as comfortable as possible. So this weekend’s game against the University of Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles will be a Saturday night matchup with kickoff happening at 6:30 PM CT. So for this MSU Gameday forecast, we will have multiple forecast periods throughout the day to accommodate those of you who like to set up early and watch the day’s fare before the Bulldogs take the field. So we will start off our forecast period at Noon for all of you who set up extra early to watch the games. We will also do a forecast for four hours before kickoff, two hours before kickoff, kickoff, halftime, end of regulation, and post-game. So today we will be using the College of DuPage website for all graphics that I’ll show. Now I will be a little wordy in my model analysis, if you want to just see my forecast numbers without all of the Meteorologist talk you can scroll down to the bottom and see my final forecast numbers.
Model Analysis
So we will start off our model analysis with the 6Z North American Mesoscale model, or NAM for short. All of the graphics I”ll use will run from 6Z (1:00 AM) Saturday through 6Z (1:00 AM) Sunday, just for consistency’s sake. Now what this is showing you are the winds in the upper atmosphere. What we’re looking for are areas of higher winds that are near the Starkville area. As the animation moves through, you see that we get one area of higher winds in Central to Northwest Arkansas and extends to the Northeast. This is a little far to be affecting us at this time, so it doesn’t look like we should be too worried about that. However, what’s going to be driving all of this is a low-pressure trough that has been working its way over from the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. Now looking down a few thousand feet at relative vorticity values, which enhance uplift to create stronger storms, we seem to be right on the edge of some fairly powerful positive vorticity advection (PVA). This may affect us in our chances for storms Saturday as that enhanced uplift could push its way to the East and to the MSU campus. As we move down to 700 mb and look at upward vertical velocities (UVVs), it is setting up to be a fairly busy day as we have a good bit of upward motion moving its way across the state and into the Starkville area. Yet another ingredient to add to the growing list of reasons why it will most likely rain this weekend. As we move down to the 850 mb mark to look at temperature advection, there is not much to help us out there. There is almost no temperature advection whatsoever, and what little there is occurring is definitely not enough to affect our area in any significant way. So what this means is that this will be strictly dynamically driven rather than thermodynamically. Looking down at the surface, the NAM wants to keep most of the heavy precipitation to the West of our area. I’m not sure that I exactly agree with the placement of this system. We’ll see what the 6Z GFS has to say about this.
6Z GFS
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So now let’s move on to the 6Z Global Forecasting System model based out of the United States. Now the GFS can run a bit longer than the NAM, which means it has been tracking this system a lot longer than the NAM. This should help out the forecast in determining what will actually happen in Starkville. The GFS actually doesn’t have a wind speed increase near the Starkville area, so maybe the NAM was right in that regard in that it won’t have much support in the upper atmosphere. Looking down at vorticity values, we actually have a nice little vorticity maximum that works its way right over Starkville. This is pushed further West than what the NAM was thinking, but it has been consistent on the placement of this vorticity maximum and its movement across the area. This is what I think will drive our whole system this weekend is that vorticity maximum. But don’t underestimate this system, it has a lot of water that it feels like getting rid of. Looking at the 700 mb UVVs, the upward motion is strong [insert Yoda reference here] with this system. This makes it a little bit more likely for storms before, during, and after the game. 850 mb temperatures are not that impressive, giving more confidence that this will be strictly dynamically driven. Now on the surface, those of you who have been asking for rain in the area will get it. The GFS has a nice bit of rain coming into the area just in time for the game.
Official MSU Gameday Forecast Numbers
Pregame
Noon: 86 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds S at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 50%.
2:30 PM (4 hours before kickoff): 89 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds S 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Chance of lightning with 5 miles 60%.
Dawg Walk (4:30 PM): 88 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds S at 5-10 mph, Chance of rain 70%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 60%.
During Game
Kickoff (6:30 PM): 85 °F, thunderstorms in the area, winds S at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 60%.
Halftime (8:00 PM): 79 °F, Overcast skies, winds S around 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 40%.
End of Regulation (9:30 PM): 77 °F, overcast skies, winds S around 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 30%.
Post-game
Leaving campus and headed home (10:30 PM): 76 °F, overcast skies, winds S around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Chance of lightning within 5 miles 15%.
Total amount of forecasted precipitation: between 1.5 and 2 inches
If you have any questions or concerns regarding the forecast, feel free to reach me on Twitter. I’ll try to update this forecast constantly as the new model data comes to me. So keep a close eye here on Maroon and White Nation as we try to provide you with the best MSU gameday experience possible.