Mississippi State women's basketball hasn't played to standard in SEC play. The Bulldogs are just 4-7 in the conference, and while their 17-8 overall record is perfectly solid, their struggles as of late have made their NCAA Tournament hopes cloudy.
If the tournament were today, they'd likely be in the field. But they're teetering closer to the cutline with just a few weeks left to play. And if State is going to feel safe about dancing, they really need to find a win Thursday night.
Vanderbilt game crucial for Mississippi State women's basketball's NCAA Tournament hopes
If Mississippi State women's basketball is going to return to the NCAA Tournament, beating Vanderbilt Thursday night will be crucial. As it stands currently, the Bulldogs have a very "bubbly" resume.
State, #34 in the NET, owns a pair of Quad 1 wins over Utah and Oklahoma, but those are their only true high quality wins. The Bulldogs are just 4-8 against the top two quadrants. Now they have not taken a bad loss (according to the quadrants), own several wins away from home, and have played a good enough strength of schedule. But the lack of high-level wins is preventing them from being safely in the tournament field as of now.
Of MSU's five remaining games, three are against lesser opponents in Florida, Texas A&M, and Auburn. Wins against those teams won't move the needle, while a loss to any of them could be greatly damaging to their postseason hopes. They're must wins, but that's soley for damage control.
One game is against Vic Shaefer's Texas Longhorns. As much as Bulldog fans would love to get some revenge there, it's not at all realistic. Texas is far too good for MSU to view a win as even possible.
That leaves Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a good squad at #22 in the NET, but they aren't so incredible to think that State is incapable of beating them on a good night. A win in Nashville would give the Bulldogs a third Q1 win and should bump them up in the metrics a few notches.
That would likely be enough that, assuming they beat the lesser teams left of the slate, they would hear their names called on Selection Sunday. But with a loss? Their chances suddenly become firmly 50/50 (if not less). It's possible they could still go dancing, but they could easily be left out for a second-straight season. If Sam Purcell and the Bulldogs want to feel confident about returning to March Madness, they need a win against the Commodores.