What are the Most-Likely Upsets on the Second Day of the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

The 2024 NCAA Tournament is off to a hot start. Thursday already gave us massive upsets with 14-seed Oakland over 3-seed Kentucky and 11-seed Duquesne over 6-seed BYU.

Of course the three games I labeled as potential upsets went 0-3 (Samford was robbed!), but that doesn't mean I won't try to pick up the best shots at upsets once again.

Here are the three most-likely upsets we might see on Friday...

10-seed Colorado over 7-seed Florida

Each year, there's usually a team from the First Four that advances to the Round of 32. With Colorado State losing Thursday, history says that their rivals from Boulder could be prime to pull off an upset on Friday.

Colorado has a highly efficient offense that connects on 49% of it's field goal attempts, led by KJ Simpson with nearly 20 points per game. Their defense rates 34th in KenPom. Florida's own offense is strong, but their defense has been susceptible at points this season.

Most likely, this will be a high-scoring affair, and either team can absolutely win a shoot-out. But if it become more of a grind, I trust CU more than Florida. The Buffaloes ability to win multiple ways gives them a great shot at pulling the upset.

13-seed Charleston over 4-seed Alabama

This is sticking with a theme similar to what we saw with Oakland taking down Kentucky. When a team who has struggled on defense all season faces a team that rain three-pointers, the chance for an upset is there.

Charleston may as well be the mid-major version of Alabama. They play at a fast tempo and take 30 three-point attempts per game. Traditionally, we'd say that styles make fights, and because both teams play the same style, the more talented team should handle business.

For the most part I agree. But Alabama's defense has been a massive issue this season. Enough so that Charleston keeping pace isn't out of the question. And if we're looking for one thing that can be the difference, Bama has struggled with turnovers this season while Charleston has taken care of the ball.

If the Tide cough it up too many times, watch out.

12-seed James Madison over 5-seed Wisconsin

This may be the most popular upset pick in the entire first round of the tournament. That's a bit scary because usually that means it won't happen. But it's a trendy pick for a reason.

James Madison is really good, Wisconsin looked suspect for most of the back half of the season, and the Dukes could be a matchup problem for the Badgers.

JMU went 31-3 this year, opening their season with a road upset of Michigan State and going all the way to win the Sun Belt Tournament Championship. They're a great offensive team who shoots the ball at a high clip. And they're specifically strong from three.

Well, Wisconsin is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three ball, allowing opponents to make 37%. The Badgers own offense grades out as an elite unit on KenPom, and though JMU has a good statistical defense, level of competition plays a roll.

Still, this likely to be another shootout, and the pieces are there for an upset.