Mississippi State football's new offense creates plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers. QB Blake Shapen should easily see the best season of his career playing for Jeff Lebby in Starkville, but in order for him to throw for a lot of yards, he needs weapons to catch those passes.
Let's look at who's likely to be his main target and what their production might look like.
Who leads Mississippi State football in receiving yards?
Jeff Lebby and WRs coach Chad Bumphis had to completely overhaul the Bulldog receiving corps after losing the top-four WRs from 2023. They did an outstanding job, landing three strong transfers in Kelly Akharaiyi, Kevin Coleman, and Trent Hudson and adding a trio of 4-star true freshmen.
Akharaiyi and Coleman will likely be the go-to options for QB Blake Shapen. Lebby's slot receivers often end-up being his receiving leader, and that'd be Coleman. But when an outside WR, like Akharaiyi, had been his best, he's had no issue feeding them the ball.
I tend to think Akharaiyi is the best all-around WR on the team and will have a chance at some lofty numbers on vertical routes. Also, the depth in the slot is greater than on the outside, meaning there could be more of a rotation there.
I'll take Akharaiyi to lead the team in yardage.
How many receiving yards did Kelly Akharaiyi have at UTEP?
Kelly Akharaiyi played in a run-heavy attack at UTEP that didn't exactly give a ton of opportunities to multiple WRs. But they had no problem targeting their top option, and in 2023, that was Akharaiyi. He hauled in 48 receptions for 1,033 yards last season. That's 21.5 yards per catch, fourth best in the country. He's a true deep threat, which means he can thrive playing for Jeff Lebby.
How many yards do Jeff Lebby's leading receivers typically have?
If you're the leading WR in a Jeff Lebby offense, chances are you put up huge numbers. I'm going to exclude a very significant outlier here so not to skew the averages, but typically, Lebby's receiving leader puts up about 1,026 yards a season.
The fewest yards by his leading receiver came from Gabe Davis in 2018 at UCF with 815. As for the most, the statistical outlier I excluded from the average was Ole Miss' Elijah Moore in 2020. In just eight games, Moore recorded an absurd 1,193 yards. That's over 149 yards a game. Had Moore played a full season at that pace, he would've finished with nearly 1,790 yards.
That's simply remarkable. I doubt Kelly Akharaiyi comes anywhere close to that, but he should still be plenty productive in this system.
How many receiving yards will Kelly Akharaiyi have playing for Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State?
It just so happens that Kelly Akharaiyi's 2023 season at UTEP is right in line with what Jeff Lebby's top WR usually records. And while that offense was very different, how he was used was very similar to the role he'll serve at MSU.
We do have to account for the fact he was playing in the Conference-USA, but as I've said many times, I do expect MSU to throw quite a bit this year to make up for their own defense. His number of opportunities will easily increase.
I believe he's going for over 1,000 yards again. I'd set the over/under at 1,020, and I think there's a real chance he challenges Makai Polk's school record of 1,048 yards.