Mississippi State football: Predictions for the Bulldogs offense in 2024

Mississippi State football begins a new era this Saturday. The Bulldogs will kickoff the 2024 season against Eastern Kentucky, marking the start of HC Jeff Lebby's tenure in Starkville.

To preview the new season, Maroon and White Nation contributors Chase Brumfield, Reed Green, and Andrew Miller answered a long series of questions about the 2024 Bulldogs to give their takes on what's in store this fall.

To start, they're previewing the Bulldog offense...

Previewing the Mississippi State football offense

Jeff Lebby begins his tenure as the Bulldogs’ head coach after tons of success as an offensive coordinator. What are your thoughts on Lebby as the leader of the program? Reasons for optimism? Any concerns? 

Chase Brumfield: Jeff Lebby, as the program leader, will restore a winning culture for the Bulldogs. Last year, leadership was an issue at times, and unfortunately, it showed. This hire will not only bring back a winning culture, but a sense of respect will return to Stark Vegas. If you are a State fan, you have a lot to be excited for. 

Reed Green: I think Lebby will be a good leader of the program because of his coaching background with who he worked under. He brings an exciting offense with a proven track record, and I can see him having similar success that Mullen had. The only concern I have now is that he is a first-time head coach, and we should know early if this hire will work.

Andrew Miller: Lebby was ready to lead a SEC program. His pedigree as an offensive mind is fantastic, and he's made it clear throughout the offseason that he understands what goes into running a big time program. I'm a bit worried about the defensive staff he assembled, but I couldn't be more excited to see the offense he puts on the field.

As mentioned, Lebby’s calling-card has been calling explosive and effective offenses. He was able to produce quick results on that side of the ball at his previous stops. How confident are you that he will do the same for Mississippi State?

Chase: I am confident that Lebby will replicate much of his previous offensive success with the Bulldogs, but I see it taking time.

Reed: I think the offense will have success this season, and the schedule early on does favor the offense. However, I will not be surprised if it sputters against Georgia or Texas due to the difference in talent. Eventually I think by next season, we should see his offense humming.

Andrew: I expect to see quick results on the offensive side of the ball. Lebby did a great job reloading the offense through the portal, and this is a system that lends itself to instant success. There'll be some growing pains for sure, but they'll be good enough early on to be competitive.

Blake Shapen wasn’t on Bulldog fans’ radar initially out of the transfer portal. But after watching him in the spring and taking a closer look at his career at Baylor, do you believe he’s the right guy to run Lebby’s offense in year one?

Chase: Blake Shapen has the potential to run Lebby's offense effectively, though year one won't be a cakewalk. There is still a lot to develop, so mistakes are likely. However, if Blake can stay consistent from game to game, the offense could surprise opposing defenses.

Reed: I do believe Shapen is the right guy for the quarterback position. His stats do not tell the whole story, as he had injury problems at Baylor. I think with a fully healthy Shapen, he can excel in this offense with his knowledge, skillset and leadership.

Andrew: Shapen is a great fit for this system. He has great arm talent and is mobile enough to make defenses pay when they don't account for him in the run game. Combine that with his experience as a player and Lebby's track-record with QBs, and I think he's in for a big year.

What are reasonable expectations for Blake Shapen running this offense?

Chase: A reasonable expectation for Blake Shapen in this offense is to be a game manager. It's vital that he keeps the game under control and plays within Lebby's system. While his numbers might not be eye-popping, Blake has the ability to produce. The key question is whether he can maintain that level of play against premier defenses.

Reed: I think a reasonable expectation for Shapen is to pass between 2,700-3,000 yards with 20-25 touchdowns. I also think he can help lead this offense to averaging about 30 points-per-game.

Andrew: If he stays healthy, I expect Shapen to finish the year north of 3,000 yards passing with around 25 TDs, and honestly those are pretty modest numbers for this offense. I could see him producing more.

What are you most optimistic about in the Bulldogs offense?

Chase: I'm most optimistic about the level of play the Bulldogs' offense will show. I expect them to run a variety of plays and introduce a different style this season, which will surprise some people. I believe the players will enjoy being part of Lebby’s offense.

Reed: I am most optimistic about Ethan Miner starting at center. He is the leader on the offensive line, and I think he can help the entire line around him play to their ability. It all starts up front, and if State is to have success in the offense, Miner will have to excel at the center position.

Andrew: Wide receiver depth. The Bulldogs loaded up at the position in the offseason, and I think they've got 7-8 capable guys in that room.

What are you most concerned about in the Bulldogs offense? 

Chase: I'm most concerned that the Bulldogs' offense may struggle to keep up in high-scoring games. Teams can score nowadays, so it is important that Lebby and his staff help the offense more than ever.

Reed: I am also most concerned about the offensive line as a whole. If they struggle up front, especially early on, the offense as a whole will struggle this season.

Andrew: I'll expound on Reed's answer and say OL depth. I think the starting unit will be fine. But after that, there's lots of inexperience and not much high-level talent. They've got to stay healthy up front.

Who do you expect to be the MVP of the Mississippi State offense this year?

Chase: I expect Blake Shapen to be the standout player for the Bulldogs' offense this year. As quarterback, his performance is crucial for the offense's success. While the running game could contribute, based on Lebby’s past, the passing game will likely be the primary focus.

Reed: I expect WR Kelly Akharaiyi to be the MVP of the offense. Every year under Lebby’s offense, he has had one receiver that has put up big numbers, and I expect the same for Akharaiyi.

Andrew: Shapen and Akharaiyi will steal the show, but in terms of one guy who'll be a game-changer, give me TE Seydou Traore. State has arguably never had a receiving threat like Traore at TE nor have they had a coach who'll utilize him as well as Lebby. Having him on the field completely changes what this offense can be.

Who do you expect to have a breakout season for the Mississippi State offense this year?

Chase: I expect the wide receivers to have a breakout season for Mississippi State’s offense. There will not be one wide receiver that will stand alone from the rest of the wide receiver group. 

Reed: I expect TE Seydou Traore to have a breakout season. I believe he will be the security blanket for Shapen, and that can potentially lead him to having an All-SEC caliber year.

Andrew: I'll go with a guy who's been waiting his turn in Starkville for a few years in WR Jordan Mosely. He was very impressive in the spring and has earned a starting role in this offense. I think he'll end up showing off the talent we've heard about for a while now.

Overall expectations are high for State’s offense. Will they finish in the top half of the SEC in scoring and total offense this year? 

Chase: I believe State’s offense will finish in the middle of the SEC in scoring and total offense this season. Expecting MSU to thrive immediately is unrealistic. Patience is key.

Reed: I don't think they'll finish in the top half in scoring give how tough their conference schedule is, especially on the road. But I do think they'll have success moving the ball in almost every game and can finish middle of the pack in total offense.

Andrew: Yardage wise, they'll be a top-half of the SEC unit, but there are a lot of great offenses in the league this year that will likely be better at putting points on the board.