Breakdown and prediction for Mississippi State football vs Florida

Mississippi State football (1-2) plays its SEC-opener Saturday morning, welcoming the Florida Gators (1-2, 0-1 SEC) to Starkville for an 11:00 AM CT kickoff. Both of these teams are off to poor starts to the season but are in very different spots in terms of coaching tenure.

Jeff Lebby is in year one of a rebuild for State, and while the early losses have been dreadful, it's somewhat understandable given the roster situation he inherited. Billy Napier, on the other hand, is in his third season in Gainesville, and his Gators do not look to have improved at all during his time there. As a result, he's on a blazing hot seat and could be officially shown the door with a loss.

The loser of this game likely cements themselves as the worst team in the SEC. Let's breakdown the matchup and make a final prediction.

Mississippi State has to contain Florida's weapons on offense

The biggest storyline for the Florida offense has been the QB controversy between veteran Graham Mertz and true freshman DJ Lagway. Mertz has regressed from a solid 2023 season, and despite incredible talent, Lagway looks like you'd expect a freshman to. It doens't help that they don't have a strong OL in front of them.

Despite all that, the Gators do have good weapons between RB Montrell Johnson and WR Elijah Badger. They're talented enough to carry Florida offensively against a bad defense. And unfortunately, State has a bad defense.

The last two games, State has allowed the opposing team's skill talent to torch them. That can't happen against Florida. MSU has to contain those pieces and put it on either Gator QB to make plays if they're going to get enough stops to win.

Bulldogs need to find success on the ground against Gators

Florida's defense as a whole has struggled, but in particular, they've not been strong up front. The Gators haven't been able to generate much pass rush at all, and in their two games against power conference opponents, they've totaled just four tackles for loss and have allowed 5.16 yards per rush.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, has struggled along the offensive line, both in terms of pass protection and run blocking. Their run blocking woes specifically are the leading cause to their overall offensive struggles. It's imperative that MSU finally find some success on the ground. That will keep them ahead of the chains and open up the rest of the offense.

Ron Roberts is the Florida DC, and when Jeff Lebby last went up against a Ron Roberts-coached defense, his offense ran for 281 yards. Asking for that much from State is unreasonable, but a big performance is needed to get the win.

Final prediction for Mississippi State football vs Florida

It'd be great to pick State to get a bounce back win after the last two weeks, and it is feasible given the situation at Florida right now. Unfortunately, I can't do that. Even against a poor Gator offense, I can't expect State's defense show up at this point, especially not with some of the weapons they're facing. The Florida defense isn't good, but their overall talent level is solid enough to slow an inconsistent Bulldog offense for most of the game. A rough start continues for MSU.

Mississippi State loses 31-24