The regular season is nearing a close, and Mississippi State women's basketball is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Right now the Bulldogs, 19-9 on the season and 6-8 in the SEC, would be on the right side of that bubble.
They're #33 in the NET, own three wins against certain tournament teams in Utah, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt, and have a winning record outside of Starkville. They also haven't suffered a loss outside of Quads 1 and 2 in the NET.
That's all solid, but there are some negatives. State's record against Q1/2 combined is just 4-9. And though they technically don't have a "bad" loss according to the NET, no one would confuse dropping games to Missouri and Florida as "quality losses". Overall mediocrity against quality competition and some questionable results have this team still fighting for their tournament lives.
With two regular season games and the SEC Tournament remaining until the bracket is revealed, what can Mississippi State women's basketball do to assure they're back in March Madness?
How can Mississippi State women's basketball secure a trip to the NCAA Tournament?
For Sam Purcell to take his Bulldogs back to the NCAA Tournament here late in the season, there three clear paths they can go on...
Option 1: Take down the Texas Longhorns
There's one straight-forward way that the Bulldogs could assure themselves a trip to the Big Dance, and that's to beat #1 Texas tonight in Starkville. At that point we'd be talking about State as a 20-win team with four wins vs tournament teams, including a potential 1-seed, and by the Quad system, no bad losses.
That team is getting in even if they then lose to Auburn and go one-and-done in Greenville. Obviously though, straight-forward does not equate to being easy. Texas is an incredible team, and barring a massive upset, MSU won't be winning that game. So what are the other options?
Option 2: Beat Auburn and win at least one in the SEC Tournament
With a win over the Longhorns seeming unlikely, this looks like the most realistic path. State gets the win at Auburn to close out the regular season without another questionable loss (though the Tigers would be a Quad 2 opponent) and reach 20 wins. Then you win at least one in Greenville to fully lock yourself into the field.
You could make a case that beating Auburn would be enough, but at 7-9 in the SEC with a pair of iffy losses and a poor Q1/2 record, I'd feel much better about MSU's chances if they didn't get bounced early from the SEC Tournament. What happens if State beats neither Texas nor Auburn?
Option 3: Win the SEC Tournament
I contemplated simply saying make a deep run Greenville, but if State were to lose their final two regular season games, I'm not sure multiple wins in the SEC Tournament, even reaching the final, would be enough. At that point, you'd be talking about a team that finished 6-10 in the SEC.
While conference record isn't everything (Texas A&M made it at 6-10 last season), MSU's profile at that point would be so incredibly mediocre that I'm not sure the committee would give them the benefit of the doubt. I'm not saying there's no way to get an at-large bid with an 0-2 regular season finish, but if State wanted to feel safe, the only way at that point would be to literally lock themselves in by earning the auto-bid.