Mississippi State women's basketball is in the quest to return to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs have had some great highs this season but also some rough lows. And now for the third-straight year, Mississippi State finds itself firmly on the bubble entering the final few games of the regular season. But are they at least on the right side of the cutline?
Mississippi State Bulldogs amongst "Last Four Byes" in ESPN's latest bracketology
For now, Mississippi State is still in position to get back to the NCAA Tournament. According to ESPN's Charlie Creme, the Bulldogs, while on the bubble, would still be in the field as of today, and they'd technically have an ounce of breathing room.
Creme has State amongst his "Last Four Byes" in his latest bracket. The "Last Four Byes" are the last four teams the receive an at-large bid but still avoid the play-in games. In Sam Purcell's first season, the Bulldogs participated in the play-in as part of the "Last Four In", needing a win there to advance to the normal 64-team field.
These projections would have this State team essentially a step above that. Creme has MSU as the second of his "Last Four Byes", meaning there are six spots between where they currently sit and falling out of the field. That means there's theoretically some cushion for the Bulldogs, but it's not much. The wrong combination of results could still quickly drop them out of the field, but it seems unlikely that they'd fall out with a loss on Thursday to #1 Texas.
Officially, Creme projects Mississippi State as a 10-seed in Region 4. He's got the Bulldogs matched up with 7-seed Utah playing in Los Angeles, paired with site host and 2-seed USC. However, it's possible this projection is the result of an oversight by Creme.
State took on and beat Utah this season, and as a general rule, the NCAA Tournament selection committee tries to avoid regular season rematches in the opening rounds of the tournament. There are situations where it can be permissible, but it's highly unlikely that's a game that would be played.
Regardless of opponent, all that matters right now is that Mississippi State does enough the rest of the way to ensure they go dancing. They're in for now, but despite a bit of cushion, the margins are getting thinner.