Mississippi State basketball is on a quest for March Madness. The Bulldog program has gone to the NCAA Tournament each of the first two seasons under head coach Chris Jans, and this season, they've put themselves in strong enough shape early on to realistically secure a bid to the Big Dance prior to regular season's end.
However, this State team has struggled as of late. After a red hot start to the season, the Bulldogs have lost five of seven, most recently getting demolished at home to a then lower-ranked Missouri team. They've looked incredibly mediocre in this stretch and now sit at 16-6 on the year with a 4-5 SEC record halfway through their conference slate.
That said, MSU remains in a good spot to easily return to the NCAA Tournament for a third-straight year. Let's look at their present resume and what they need to do in the back-half of SEC play to lock up a ticket to the Big Dance...
Mississippi State basketball's NCAA Tournament resume
Mississippi State no longer finds itself with one of the very best resumes in the country, which was the case early in SEC play. But the Bulldogs are still in a solid spot resume wise.
State sits at #30 in the NET. Their predictive metric average, which grades a team purely by how good they look to be beyond wins and losses, comes out to 31.0, right in line with their NET rank. Their resume metric average, which grades a team solely by the quality of their wins and losses, is significantly higher. That average is at 24.3.
So going purely from a metrics standpoint, you could argue the Bulldogs as anywhere from the final 6-seed to an 8-seed. Knowing that, it makes sense that most bracketologists project Mississippi State as a 7-seed, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi.
The other factors in MSU's resume put them in that range as well. The Bulldogs have a 4-5 record against Quad 1 opponents with an 8-6 record against the top two quadrants, all perfectly respectable. They've also not taken a bad loss according to the NET.
Their strength of schedule is strong at 25 thanks to the SEC, but with a merely average non-conference SOS of 118, they don't get much of a boost there. What does help them is an 8-4 record away from Starkville with four true road wins. That's genuinely impressive and could be a factor that puts them ahead of similar teams.
All in all, Mississippi State had the profile of a team that's safely in the NCAA Tournament as of now, still a few seed lines ahead of the bubble. That said, they aren't yet a lock to reach the Big Dance.
What must the Bulldogs do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament?
So what's left for State to do to assure they're dancing for a third-straight year? Nothing unreasonable. Compared to last season, the Bulldogs have already matched the '23-'24 team's total number of quality wins (without an awful loss like they had last season) with more road wins against a much tougher strength of schedule.
The resume is already better off than that team, which ended up being an 8-seed. That said, it doesn't mean State could lose out and still be fine. There is threshold for overall record that still matters, and finishing right around .500 isn't enough. You need to be a few games above that point.
How many more wins would get them just safe enough to make the tournament? Three seems to be the magic number. That would put the Bulldogs with 19 overall wins, and considering that all but one of their remaining games are Q1 opportunities, simply winning more games would mean they'd add more quality wins as well.
There's a real chance that three more wins wouldn't just lock State in. It could have them above the bubble and easily avoiding the First Four. So with that in mind, you could perhaps make a case that even at 18 wins, the Bulldogs could be in. Based on history though, that'd be pushing it, and they'd be near the final cutline.
At 20 wins, there's no discussion. State is in, and is undoubtedly a single-digit seed. Now given their struggles as of late, I'm sure the more cynical folks within the fanbase may be doubting they get to that point.
But there are still some games left on the schedule that are winnable even if the Bulldogs don't return to high-level play. LSU isn't a good team, and the likes of Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas have all been as inconsistent, if not more so, than Mississippi State in SEC play.
There's no reason to not think that State can't win at least three games out of those five opponents. And if they can get back on track, it's absolutely a possibility that they could spring an upset too. The Bulldogs have some work left to do, and their recent struggles are a concern. But this team is still in good position to get back to the Big Dance.