Since December, Mississippi State basketball has been a consensus selection to reach the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and since that point the majority of bracket projections have had the Bulldogs as a highly-seeded team. Early in SEC play, this team was challenging to be one of the top teams in the field.
But the Bulldogs have faded over the past month, losing five of seven. They've seen their metrics and resume steadily fall, and as a result, bracketologists aren't nearly as high on them. That includes ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who no longer has State in protected-seed territory.
Mississippi State basketball a 7-seed in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology
In just a weeks time, Bulldog basketball has fallen a full three-seed lines in bracket projections, with Joe Lunardi placing State as a 7-seed in the South Region. Granted, Lunardi was likely being a bit generous to State to still have them as a 4-seed this time last week, but now he's dropped the Bulldogs significantly.
Joey Brackets has 7-seed Mississippi State taking on 10-seed Utah State in Wichita, paired with 2-seed Houston and 15-seed Bryant. Utah State would undoubtedly be a frightening 10-seed to face. The Aggies have been one of the top mid-major programs for several seasons now. They've already won 20 games this season, boasting a strong offense and aggressive defense.
Getting through them in the opening round would not at all be easy. And even if State did, facing, presumably, a 2-seed Houston team fielding an elite defense in the second round would not be ideal either. The Bulldogs are one of 13 SEC teams Joe Lunardi currently projects in the NCAA Tournament, with one more just outside the field. Lunardi has three SEC teams - Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee - as 1-seeds.
At this point, Mississippi State's NCAA Tournament resume is merely solid. They still have good overall metrics with good wins and no bad losses. They are a bubble team, as they'd be firmly in the field if the tournament were today.
But they certainly are not trending in the right direction, and with a few more losses, suddenly things get quite a bit more "bubbly". It's important that the Bulldogs start the back-half of their SEC schedule strongly and get momentum back on their side before hitting the home stretch.