Mississippi State basketball sits in a good spot with regards to their NCAA Tournament chances with two weeks to go in the month of January. The Bulldogs are 14-3 on the year, own some impressive wins, and haven't taken a bad loss to this point.
Through their non-conference slate, State put themselves in a position to play for seeding in SEC play rather than have to grind their way towards getting a bid, as has been the case the last two years. In fact, their resume in the non-conference was so strong that many bracketologists were projected the Bulldogs as high as a 2-seed.
But now after consecutive losses, including getting blown out at Auburn, their resume, while still solid, isn't strong enough to have them with an argument for being seeded quite that high. As a result, State has seen a fall in the latest projections from major bracketologists.
Mississippi State Bulldogs a 5-seed in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology
Entering their matchup with Kentucky last Saturday, ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who had been lower on Mississippi State than most, had fallen in line with the consensus and given MSU a 2-seed. That's obviously changed following their recent losses.
In his latest projections, Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs as a 5-seed in the West Region. Lunardi has the Bulldogs traveling to Denver, matched up with 12-seed Samford and paired with 4-seed Houston and 13-seed Akron. He has fellow SEC program Tennessee as the 1-seed in the West Region.
Falling some was expected after an 0-2 week, but why did losing to NET #10 Kentucky and NET #1 Auburn result in a three seed line drop when those aren't at all damaging loses? It's mostly because other teams had more impressive weeks. State's predictive metrics haven't changed all that much, averaging at 22. But their resume metrics, which had previously been Top 10, now average to 16 as teams around the country have added quality wins.
Going purely off predictive metrics, State would be a 6-seed. Going purely off resume metrics, they'd be a 4-seed. While it doesn't technically always work out like this, having the Bulldogs as a 5-seed is a simple enough middle-ground. And looking through projections from other bracketologists, that's about where most have MSU.
State gets an opportunity to improve their position on Saturday. Ole Miss comes in as the #16 team in the NET. A win would give the Bulldogs a fifth Q1 victory, and it would likely boost their predictive metrics too, as the Rebels grade out as a Top 25 quality team. It's an important game for Mississippi State early in SEC play to get back some momentum.