Mississippi State basketball is off to a fantastic start to the season. The Bulldogs are 12-1 and ranked #17 in the country. Now SEC play begins, with State hosting South Carolina on Saturday. And while there won't be anything easy about conference play this season, Mississippi State has put themselves in fantastic position through their non-conference games to not only return to the NCAA Tournament for a third-straight year, but potentially be one of the highest-seeded teams in school history.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs boast an impressive NCAA Tournament resume entering SEC play
Going into conference play, Mississippi State has one of the most impressive NCAA Tournament resumes in the country. They currently sit as the #18 team in the NET. Their predictive metrics, which judge a team purely by how good they're presumed to be, average out to 24.7. Analytically, this is a Top 25 team in the country.
But their resume metrics are what truly stand out. State's resume metrics, which evaluate the quality of wins and losses, average to a 9.7. According to the metrics, they have one of the 10 most impressive resumes in the country to this point. What makes their resume so strong?
The Bulldogs are 3-0 in Quad 1 games with a 5-1 record against Quads 1 and 2. The fact that two of their Q1 wins have been blowouts only help their case. They haven't suffered a single bad loss. They have two true roads wins and are 6-1 playing outside of Starkville, and State's 84th ranked strength of schedule is perfectly respectable.
So Mississippi State has put together a great early collection of wins against a good schedule, and analytical models also reflect they're capable of playing at a very high level (something we obviously have seen on the court). They don't just have the makings of a tournament team. They have the makings of a high seed.
Bracketologists are high on Mississippi State basketball
Early returns from the bracketologists that work to project the NCAA Tournament field have been high for Mississippi State. Household name and Godfather of Bracketology Joe Lunardi currently has the Bulldogs as a 4-seed in the tournament. But other bracketologists are even higher on MSU at the moment.
The National Bracketology Convention returns!
— TSB Bracketology (@TSBBracketology) January 3, 2025
A convention of some of the nation’s highest-rated bracketologists have banded together once more to create an aggregate of seed lists.
This was super difficult to make with our varying opinions, so give us your thoughts below! pic.twitter.com/8Cz1hJLiX5
More than 20 bracketologists worked together to set their current NCAA Tournament seed list through the National Bracketology Convention. Their combined evaluations have Mississippi State currently as a 2-seed, eighth overall in the field.
We're still months away from the tournament, and SEC play is just now starting. But if that were to hold, it would be their highest seed in the NCAA Tournament since the 2004 SEC champion Bulldogs who were also a 2-seed, a program-best.
That may be a bit of a lofty goal, but even if State doesn't end up being seeded quite that high, they're in position to challenge the 2019's team 5-seed as the best seeding since 2004. To do that, of course, they're going to have to keep their positive momentum up into SEC play.
And that certainly won't be easy. The SEC is brutal this year. There will be some good teams that find themselves struggling to pick up wins in the conference. But State is undoubtedly good enough to be a challenger this season, and if they can stay on track, they'll find themselves with some great positioning in the 2025 Big Dance.