The postseason has arrived for Mississippi State basketball. The Bulldogs concluded the regular season on Saturday with a gutting loss at Arkansas, their fourth loss in their last five games. State, 20-11 on the year, now heads to Nashville for the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament, where they'll be the 10-seed.
Going into the final game of the regular season, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had Mississippi State projected as an 8-seed. There was some hope that win a win in Fayetteville, a Quad 1 road opportunity, State could move up in bracketology off the dreaded 8/9 line. But the Bulldogs took a loss instead, so where do they fall in Lunardi's latest projections? And how would some wins in Nashville help their resume?
Mississippi State Bulldogs an 8-seed in Joe Lunardi's bracketology entering SEC Tournament
Mississippi State stayed stagnant in Joe Lunardi's bracketology after their loss to Arkansas. The Bulldogs remain an 8-seed in the Midwest Region. Lunardi still sends them to Wichita for the opening weekend of the Big Dance with the 9-seed Creighton Bluejays as their projected first round opponent.
Creighton is a solid all-around team this season, and while their wins don't necessarily jump off the page, this a program that's used to winning in March. They've won at least one NCAA Tournament game each of the last four seasons, advancing to the second weekend in three out of four.
They'd be a challenging first round draw, but when you're an 8-seed, that's nearly unavoidable. Mississippi State's path towards advancing further in the tournament would be treacherous, seeing as how they'd almost certainly face a 1-seed if they made the second round. In this case, that 1-seed would be Houston.
Mississippi State basketball will need multiple wins in the SEC Tournament to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding
If the Bulldogs want to get out of the 8/9 game, they've got work to do in Nashville. State's first round opponent of LSU, 86 in the NET, won't do anything for them resume wise with a win. But if MSU can get to the second round, there's a chance to potentially move up.
State's second round opponent would be Missouri. That's a Quad 1 opportunity against another NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers are also projected just above the Bulldogs in the bracket, so there's a chance that game could result in the teams flipping position if State were to win.
That being said, many of the teams projected as 7-seeds have strong enough resumes that State getting two wins in Nashville may not be enough to change things. The only way you could say with great confidence that the Bulldogs would move up would be making a run to the SEC Tournament semifinals, which would require Mississippi State to take down a projected 1-seed in Florida.
To say that's a big ask is an understatement. Even beating Mizzou, if State gets to the second round, would be very difficult seeing as how the first meeting between those teams went. In all likelihood, Mississippi State is going to find itself playing in an 8/9 game next week unless they can find some March magic starting tonight.