Mississippi State basketball has sent the Bulldogs fanbase through waves of emotions this season. Right when things seemed to be at their lowest, State went on the road and dominated rival Ole Miss to complete a season sweep of the Rebels and add another good win to their resume. And with one month to go until Selection Sunday, head coach Chris Jans has his Bulldogs in stellar position to make the NCAA Tournament for a third-straight season.
Mississippi State basketball's NCAA Tournament resume is sturdy
Despite the ongoing roller coaster of SEC play and some tough moments, Mississippi State is has put together a strong NCAA Tournament resume going into the last few weeks of the regular season. The Bulldogs, 18-7 (6-6) on the year, check in at #29 in the NET.
State owns six Quad 1 wins and has a 10-7 record against the top two quadrants. They haven't taken a bad loss. Perhaps most impressive about their resume is their six road wins and incredible 10-3 record playing outside of Starkville. Owning that many quality wins against the #11 strength of schedule is why resume metrics rank the Bulldogs at an average of 16.7, in range to contend for a high seed.
The one area where MSU is somewhat lacking comes down to having truly high-level wins. Their Q1 record is impressive, but their best win is their most recent, at NET #25 Ole Miss. That's a really good win, but it's not a needle-mover. They're 0-6 against teams in the NET Top 20 with four blowout losses. While not something that would in any way keep them out of the tournament, it could keep State seeded a bit lower than they'd like.
In that vein, predictive metrics, grading teams by performance beyond wins and losses, are lower on Mississippi State, with an average rank of 30.7. That's not bad at all, but it's significantly lower than where the resume metrics see the Bulldogs. It's another factor limiting State's seeding, and it's part of why they aren't fully a lock yet to make the Big Dance.
But they're incredibly close.
The Bulldogs don't need much more to be a lock for March Madness
State is nearly set on punching their ticket back to the NCAA Tournament. There's just a little more work left to be done, and it could be as simple as winning one more game.
If State were to take down either Texas A&M or Alabama, they would have a win of such high significance that they could arguably lose their remaining games and still get a bid. Their profile would then be strong enough to withstand losses down the stretch. Not that they'd want to close the regular season at 1-5, which would invite plenty of scrutiny, but their overall resume would remain tournament worthy.
But they don't need that elite win to make it. Any two wins the rest of the way, including beating a bad LSU team, to get to 20 wins on the season would seal the deal. A team that wins 20 games in this conference with the number of quality wins the Bulldogs have isn't just dancing. They're a single-digit seed.
Essentially, one elite win or two average wins should firmly lock State in. If it's one average win, especially if it's just LSU, then things become bubbly. MSU would still have a great argument and a better profile than most teams on the bubble, but they'd still be leaving it up to chance.
Mississippi State has a chance to end any debate before the end of February. That first big chance comes Tuesday night when the Aggies come to Starkville.