Mississippi State football's 2025 season came to an end a little over a week ago on Black Friday. The Bulldogs fell 38-19 in the Egg Bowl to close out the regular season 5-7, one win short of reaching bowl-eligibility.
But is State's season actually over?
It may not be thanks to some bowl game opt outs. Kansas State and Iowa State each qualified for bowl games this season, but with both going through coaching changes, the programs have decided to opt out of the postseason. With too few teams with at least six wins available to fill those now open slots, the NCAA will instead turn to a group of 5-7 teams and find replacements based on APR (Academic Progress Rate) scores.
According to On3 Sports' Brett McMurphy, the top 5-7 teams in APR score rank are Rice, Auburn, UCF, Mississippi State, and Florida State.
With Kansas State & Iowa State opting not to play in bowls, they're both subject to league fines, sources told @On3sports. NCAA will pick replacements based on APR. Top 5 in order, source told @On3sports, is Rice, Auburn, UCF, Mississippi State & FSUhttps://t.co/oRbPrNx5PJ
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) December 7, 2025
And the odds seem high that Mississippi State could end up being offered a bowl bid. Because whether Rice accepts a bowl invite or not, the other two teams ahead of the Bulldogs don't look to be in position to play in a bowl. It's been reported that Auburn would not accept an APR bowl invite at this point, with the coaching and staff changes being major reasons why it would not make sense for the Tigers.
Since many have asked: if Auburn receives a bowl invitation at this late stage, they will decline it, sources tell @AuburnOn3
— Justin Hokanson (@_JHokanson) December 6, 2025
Coaching change, staff building, roster retention, players in offseason mode — a bowl trip simply wouldn’t make sense.
🔗 https://t.co/fgH2fD0gKZ pic.twitter.com/8ltZ2pX3Ih
In the case of UCF, their semester has already ended with players going home, and it seems as though fielding a roster could be a problem for the Knights.
As previously posted by @UCFSports, it would be difficult for #UCF to accept a bowl bid at this time. The semester is over, and the player have all gone their own ways. Plus, several players have indicated they plan to enter the transfer portal. It would not be easy.
— Matt Murschel (@osmattmurschel) December 7, 2025
Assuming both Auburn and UCF decline invitations, Mississippi State would then be next in line to serve as a replacement for one of the open bowl slots. It wouldn't be the first time the Bulldogs would be in position to make a bowl game thanks to APR scores. In 2016, MSU accepted an APR bowl invite to the St. Petersburg Bowl as a 5-7 team, a game they'd go on to win 17-16.
Mississippi State should accept a bowl invite if offered
If Mississippi State is indeed offered a spot in a bowl game this winter, they should absolutely accept that invitation. For a rebuilding Bulldogs program, getting an extra 15 practices would be invaluable for development going into a crucial 2026 season.
The practices and development would be especially valuable for freshman QB Kamario Taylor. The young talent got his first start in the Egg Bowl and looked the part in that game. He's a star in the making and the future leader of the program. Getting him more practices and another game as a starter would be massive.
Plus, it's a chance for Mississippi State to gain some much-needed momentum on the field. Despite a poor close to the regular season, there's some cautious optimism around Bulldog football thanks to a strong National Signing Day and the hiring of Zach Arnett as defensive coordinator. If Jeff Lebby's program can add an actual win behind a strong performance by Kamario Taylor on top of that, there'll be serious buzz around the program entering 2026.