Mississippi State Game Tonight: Mississippi State vs Florida Line, Predictions, Odds, TV Channel & Live Stream for College Basketball Jan. 19
By Joe Summers
Mississippi State vs Florida Odds: Line, Spread, Over/Under
The 12-4 Mississippi St. Bulldogs travel to the 10-6 Florida Gators tonight. Tip-off is at 6:30PM EST and WynnBET has the Bulldogs as 6-point underdogs and +200 on the moneyline ($10 to win $20). The over/under is 138.5.
Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction Tonight
I’ll be honest, and I promise I’m not pandering, I do not understand this line. Florida has been an underachieving team all season, stumbling into this matchup with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has won 6 of 7, including most recently a win over an Alabama team that throttled Florida 83-70 just two weeks ago.
These teams are far closer than the line suggests. They’re both balanced teams, ranking in the top 100 nationally in both offense and defense with the Bulldogs being slightly better offensively and the Gators better defensively.
However, Florida has one glaring weakness that Mississippi St. will be able to to take advantage of. While the Bulldogs rank 11th in the country in offensive rebounding rate per Bart Torvik, Florida is a horrendous 268th in defensive rebounding rate. Even if the Bulldogs uncharacteristically struggle to score, they should have more shooting opportunities than their opponent.
The best way to counter your opponent having more shots than you is to be good at shooting 3-pointers. 3 is more than 2, after all. However, Florida ranks 291st in 3-point shooting percentage at just 30.6%.
Already with advantages in rebounding and shooting, the final reason Mississippi St. will cover the spread is that they play at a snail’s pace. They are 311th in adjusted tempo, so they’ll play slowly but be able to limit possessions for Florida through their offensive rebounding advantage.
I make this game close to a pick-em and see screaming value in the Bulldogs favor. Give me Mississippi St. on the moneyline at +200 and on the spread at +6 as my best bets tonight.
Make your pick now on WynnBET.
What Channel is the Mississippi State Game On?
Mississippi St. vs Florida will be broadcast on SEC Network at 6:30 PM EST.