Joe Moorhead decided to run Nick Fitzgerald at Auburn with four seconds remaining on the clock. Did the head coach of the Mississippi State football team make the right choice?
Just so we’re clear before I get started here: THIS IS FOR FUN. IT IS SIMPLY CONJECTURE. I LIKE MISSISSIPPI STATE FOOTBALL AND JOE MOORHEAD. HE IS A SMART FOOTBALL COACH. PLEASE DON’T CHEW ME OUT IN THE COMMENTS. I mean, the entirety of my football related time-management skills are from playing football video games. So I’m much more apt to take chances than anyone who’s job depends on clock-decisions.
Anyway, Mississippi State had a 4th and goal try from the half yard line with about 40 seconds left in the first half. At first, it appeared that the Bulldogs called timeout at this time (the referee announced MSU would use a timeout to avoid a 10 second runoff).
Instead, Joe Moorhead elected to run the clock down to 0:04 before calling a timeout. It only left enough time for the Bulldogs to run one play, the only play they could run because it was 4th down, and left Auburn without the opportunity to run an offensive play.
Smart, right?
Leaving nearly 40 seconds on the clock would have been a bad decision — 40 seconds would have conceivably given Auburn the chance to make it into field goal range if MSU failed to score. But, leaving ~10 seconds on the clock may have been a good decision for Moorhead to make.
With 10 seconds left, if Mississippi State doesn’t score on 4th down, the clock would stop with maybe 3-4 seconds left, making it necessary for Auburn to run a play.
So if Fitz was stopped, I don’t know, let’s say with the width of his body between the ball and the goal line (he was totally in. The ball definitely crossed the goal line. Let’s not dwell on this), Auburn wouldn’t have enough room to kneel before halftime. The Tigers would have to run a play, and who wouldn’t want to see Jeffery Simmons bury Jarrett Stidham behind the goal line? SAFETY!
Any time you’re trying to decide on what to do on 4th and goal from the one or in, you’re deciding between an almost guaranteed 3 points, and a much less sure 7 points. Why wouldn’t you want to try for 7 and still give yourself a chance to recoup 2 points if you don’t make it?
Let’s talk about the risk. First, if the ball CLEARLY CROSSES THE GOAL LINE, OBVIOUSLY, you then have to kick the ball off to Auburn. Maybe they return it for a touchdown. Then you’ve got a net zero on points. Or, maybe you don’t get the touchdown… or the safety… and Auburn scores a 99 yard touchdown. Then you’re down 7 net points in those 10 seconds.
Ultimately, Joe Moorhead elected to go for 7 and minimize the risk associated with trying for a safety in the event the Mississippi State football team didn’t score the touchdown. It was the perfect risk, giving yourself the chance for 7 points, without exposing yourself to the risk of giving Auburn points (even if those chances are incredibly slim).
It definitely wasn’t the wrong choice, but if you’re playing me online, I’m giving myself the chance for 2 if I don’t score the touchdown.