Numbers Never Lie: Using Stats to Determine the SEC’s Best Returning Quarterback

The debate continues: who is the SEC’s best returning quarterback? Contributor Andrew Miller looks to answer that question by diving into the statistics of three promising, young signal-callers.

It’s the middle of the offseason for college football, and you all know what that means.  Up until the exact moment that the 2017 season is kicked-off, everyone will be releasing their lists, rankings, and predictions that are all sure to be wrong.  While many football fans dread this time of year, I enjoy it.  I like reading the hundreds of different opinions that flood this time of year.  It gets me excited for the upcoming season.  I also love to partake in the offseason madness by making my own rankings and predictions, and this year is no different.

Among the most popular of these debates is who the SEC’s best quarterback is.  Our own Cooper Ashcraft released his rankings a few weeks back that you can read here.

Cooper put together a really solid set of rankings, and I agreed with him on most of his selections. But recently, the debate took an interesting turn when former Alabama and NFL quarterback and current ESPN Analyst Greg McElroy said in an interview with fellow analyst Cole Cubelic that, if given the choice, he would take Nick Fitzgerald at quarterback to start a team.  Cubelic has also stated that he would choose Fitzgerald.

https://twitter.com/HailStateFB/status/872845019841011712

It’s surprising to see multiple people in the media pick Fitzgerald as the conference’s top quarterback, especially considering the hype around reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Year Jalen Hurts.  The debate carried over to the SEC Network’s Paul Finebaum Show, where Finebaum asked viewers to tweet in who they would choose.

Unsurprisingly, the idea that Fitzgerald could be better than Hurts did not go over well with Tide fans.  There were also several Razorback fans disgruntled that their signal-caller, Austin Allen, was left out of the discussion after a season in which he lead the league in passing.

With all the bickering going on, I decided to settle, once and for all, who the SEC’s top quarterback is heading into the 2017 season.  I myself advocate for the “Numbers Never Lie” school of thought.  I’m a stat-nerd, so naturally, I dove into the statistics of Fitzgerald, Allen, and Hurts from last season in an attempt to rank the three.

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My methodology for these rankings was to compare the each’s numbers in several major categories (some of which have sub-categories) and award points to the leader in each category.  Each category is worth a total of 1-point.  If there are sub-categories, each “sub” will be worth a fraction of a point.  In the case of a tie for a particular category or sub-category, the tying players will both be awarded the full amount of points available.  The idea of making each category worth an equal value may not please everyone, but it is ultimately the best solution, as seemingly everyone values something different when evaluating quarterbacks.

So without further ado, let’s dive into these rankings.

The Candidates

• Nick Fitzgerald (JR), Miss State
• Jalen Hurts (SO), Alabama
• Austin Allen (SR), Arkansas

The Categories

•  Total Yards per Game (Broken into Passing, Rushing, and Overall)
• Total Offense in 2016
• Total Touchdowns (Broken into Passing, Rushing, and Overall)
• Touchdown to Interception Ratio
• Completion Percentage
• Total Quarterback Rating (per ESPN)
• Production vs Top-50 Defenses (Broken into YPG, TDs, INTs, and Completion %)
• Production in SEC Games (Broken into YPG, TDs, INTs and Completion %)
• Record as a Starter

**All statistics were obtained via www.cfbstats.com