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Mississippi State Football: best and worst case scenarios going forward

By Josh Barnhill

Sep 3, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams (11) drops back to pass during the first quarter of the game against the South Alabama Jaguars at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 3, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams (11) drops back to pass during the first quarter of the game against the South Alabama Jaguars at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /
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After losing to South Alabama, Mississippi State will have to push the reset button on the 2016 season expectations.

If you’re a Mississippi State fan (which I’m sure you are) then you’ve run the gamut of emotions over the past 48 hours. You’re somewhere between “fire Mullen” or “optimistic we’ll turn it around and make a bowl”.

Last week, most MSU fans were expecting a 7-5 or 8-4 season. Now about the best you can hope to find when surveying the fan base is 6-6, while many are just hoping we don’t go 2-10.

There are two extremes to look at, and this team will ultimately lean towards one or the other.

1. This was just a classic Mullen let down game in the same vein as barely beating UAB in 2010, an overtime win over Louisiana Tech in 2011, escaping Troy in 2012 and surviving Bowling Green in 2013. It’s just that this time MSU lost the game….if finally caught up with Mullen.

If this is the case, you can expect the team to improve. Each of those above listed teams that had close calls against non-conference non-power 5 teams went to a bowl game. Granted, if the 2011 or 2013 team had actually lost those games they would not have gone to a bowl, they did manage to beat Kentucky, Ole Miss and the rest of their non-conference non-power 5 games (they weren’t bad).

More reaction:: Don't jump off the ledge just yet

Here’s how I see the season under this scenario:

  • South Carolina, Auburn, and Arkansas are all toss ups, I’ll say 2-1 since they’re at home
  • 2-1 in road games vs. UMass, BYU and Kentucky
  • Beat Samford
  • Lose to A&M, LSU, Alabama
  • Go into the Egg Bowl at 5-6

2. This team relied so much on Dak Prescott – from his play-making ability to his leadership – that they are lost without him. Bear Wilson’s size, pass catching and blocking cannot be replaced. Beniquez Brown, the QB of the defense, will be sorely missed. Will Redmond and Taveze Calhoun left a gaping hole that will leave the Dawgs burnt time and time again. The sub-par recruiting (for a SEC school) has caught up with Mullen as he hasn’t developed these players like in years past.

If this one is the case, you can write this team off now. If they are on South Alabama’s level then it’s going to be a long season that may feature some blow-outs.

Even more reaction: Armchair QB: Cat Scratch Fever Edition

Here’s how I see the season going under this scenario:

  • Dog fights vs. South Carolina, UMass and Kentucky to maybe win two of them
  • Win over Samford
  • Losses to LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss

Best case: 6-6

Worst case: 2-10

Unless Nick Fitzgerald or Nick Tiano come out and become the next Dak Prescott that’s how it’s going to happen. Hopefully the South Alabama was just a bad loss in a rebuilding year and nothing more. If there are deeper problems like a lack of player development then it’s going to set the program back a few years, and that promising 2017 run we were hoping for will be a distant dream.

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