Maroon and White Nation
Fansided

Will MSU be undefeated heading to Tuscaloosa, again?

By Josh Barnhill

Nov 14, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen and Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban shake hands after the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Alabama won 31-6. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 14, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen and Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban shake hands after the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Alabama won 31-6. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

MSU has been undefeated the last two times they’ve played Alabama in Tuscaloosa – will it happen for a third time in a row?

Dan Mullen is 0-7 vs. Alabama. They are the only Western Division team he’s yet to defeat, and if he is able to beat South Carolina in Week 2 they’ll be the last SEC team he hasn’t beaten when the Bulldogs travel Highway 82 to play the Tide on November 12th.

Despite the annual loss to Nick Saban by an average margin on 19.8 points, the Dawgs have actually come into the game riding high a number of times under Mullen….

Mississippi State has been ranked in the top 20 four times when facing Alabama:

  • #17 in 2010
  • #13 in 2012
  • #1 in 2014
  • #20 in 2015

In each of those years, the Bulldogs had already achieved at least seven wins on the season:

  • 7-2 in 2010
  • 7-0 in 2012
  • 9-0 in 2014
  • 7-2 in 2015

Unfortunately, the top three years in that span – 2010, 2012 and 2014 – all featured trips to Tuscaloosa. 2010 and 2012 were thorough beat-downs. In 2014, State got down 19-0 early but battled back only to lose 25-20 in by far the closest game of the Mullen era.

more bulldogs: Top player at each position for Mississippi State

If MSU is 23-2 prior to their every-other-year trip to Tuscaloosa under Coach Mullen, one has to believe they could find themselves with a nice overall record in 2016 as well. So could it be possible to hit seven wins before playing Bama once again?

Here’s the schedule:

  • vs. South Alabama
  • vs. South Carolina
  • at LSU
  • at UMass
  • Bye
  • vs. Auburn
  • at BYU
  • at Kentucky
  • vs. Samford
  • vs. Texas A&M

Once again, Alabama will be the 10th team on the schedule. So the question becomes, can MSU be 7-2 by that game?

I haven’t come up with any final predictions just yet, but my initial thinking after reviewing the teams this summer is:

  • USA, UMass and Samford should all be wins
  • BYU and Kentucky are road games which MSU should have the upper hand, making them swing games
  • South Carolina and Arkansas are home games which MSU should have the upper hand
  • Auburn and Texas A&M are home games which, in theory, MSU should have less talent making them swing games
  • LSU and Alabama should be losses
  • I’ll skip the Egg Bowl for now because we’re talking about the Bama game

So….based on that logic:

  • vs. USA – W
  • vs. South Carolina – W
  • at LSU – L
  • at UMass – W
  • vs. Auburn – W/L
  • at BYU – W/L
  • at Kentucky – W/L
  • vs. Samford – W
  • Texas A&M – W/L

There’s four wins, one loss and four swing games in there. If the swing games are split it would give MSU a record of 6-3 heading to Tuscaloosa. Of course, that’s giving Kentucky a 50% chance of winning….and UK has never beaten Mullen like Mullen has never beaten Alabama. Would anyone give State anywhere near a 50% chance to beat the Tide, even at home?

Related Story: Beating South Carolina is the key to a successful season

I think State can beat Auburn and Texas A&M but the odds of beating both are slim, even if the games are at home. That means the key stretch (assuming we beat South Carolina) are the road games at BYU and Kentucky. The Bulldogs have more talent than those two teams – but can they go on the road in back-to-back weeks and win? If they can, 7-2 is certainly attainable heading into the Alabama game. Being undefeated like 2012 and 2014? Not so much.

Home/Mississippi State Football