How Mississippi State can win the SEC baseball regular season title

With one weekend remaining in the SEC baseball regular season, six teams still have a mathematical shot at capturing the overall championship including Mississippi State.

We’ll look at some possibilities in a moment, but first here are the standings going into the final weekend.

 Team                               W         L               G. B.
Florida (East)                   18         8                 –
Texas A&M (West)         18         9               0.5
Miss. State (West)         18         9               0.5
South Carolina (East)    17         9               1.0
Ole Miss (West)              17       10              1.5
LSU (West)                       17       10              1.5
And here is this weekend’s slate of games:

Arkansas at Mississippi State
Ole Miss at Texas A&M
Florida at LSU
South Carolina at Alabama

Before going any further into this discussion, two things should be pointed out.  First, while head-to-head competition is used to break ties for purposes of seeding teams in the SEC Tournament, the Southeastern Conference recognizes all teams with identical records as champions, either divisional or overall, regardless of the results of head to head competition.

More bulldogs: Diamond Dawgs sweep Auburn

Second, because of a rainout that occurred during the Florida-South Carolina series a few weeks ago, those two teams have played one less game than the others.  When this happens, standings are determined by winning percentage.  This is why Florida leads A&M and MSU by one half game, even though all three have won 18 games.  The weather could also play a factor in this weekend’s games.  More on that below.

There are countless scenarios involving these teams, so I decided to stick with what matters to the majority of Maroon & White Nation readers:  What does Mississippi State need to do to win the SEC regular season championship?

Florida controls its own destiny.  If the Gators sweep LSU in Baton Rouge (a very tall order), they win the SEC outright regardless of what anyone else does.  So the Bulldogs need the Gators to lose at least one time against LSU. If that happens and MSU sweeps Arkansas, MSU would claim at least a share of the SEC and Western Division title. If Texas A&M also loses a game, the Bulldogs would claim those titles outright.

What if MSU only wins 2 of 3 against Arkansas?  Can they still win anything?  Yes, but they would need a bit more help.  First, Florida would have to drop 2 of 3 at LSU (realistically possible). South Carolina and Texas A&M would also need to lose a game.  This scenario leaves MSU and Texas A&M tied for the title.  The Bulldogs would win the title outright if the Aggies lose twice to Ole Miss.  Given how well the Aggies have played at home this year, this does not appear likely.

Next: Figuring out how RPI works

The wild card in these and all other scenarios is the weather.  Current forecasts show a strong possibility of rain at College Station, Baton Rouge, Starkville and Tuscaloosa during the Thursday-Saturday period.  If the weather results in cancelled games, remember that standings are determined by winning percentages.  This potentially could alter some of the scenarios discussed above.  All in all, it should make for one of the most exciting finishes to an SEC baseball season in many years.