Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against the Spread, Week 12

Justin goes another round in trying to improve his record of picking games against the spread.

Last week wasn’t terrible. I got more picks against the spread than I missed, so that’s a good thing. The only problem is it was by just one game, so I didn’t make up as much ground as I would have liked in getting out of this Against the Spread hole i have dug myself into.

So this week needs to continue what I started the previous week. Only way to get out of the hole is one game at a time. The only problem is there are some really awful games this week. And I have to pick games with enormous spreads. I hate these kinds of games. But as the old saying goes, there’s no crying when picking games against the spread.

To the picks!

Last Week

Against the Spread: 4-3
Straight Up: 4-3

Year to Date

Against the Spread: 34-36
Straight Up: 46-24

FAU at Florida (-31)

Here’s example number one of an awful game I have to pick. Florida will win, but the question I have is whether or not I have confidence in this offense to beat anyone by 31 points. I really don’t

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Prediction: Florida 38 – FAU 10

The Citadel at South Carolina (-20)

I was a little surprised to see the Gamecocks only favored by 20. The Gamecocks may not score much more than 20, but it will be just enough to cover.

Prediction: South Carolina 28 – FAU 6

LSU at Ole Miss (-4)

This is an intriguing game. There are reports swirling around Les Miles is going to be coaching for his job these last two games. And that puts an interesting twist on things.

My initial reaction is to say Ole Miss will win. The Tigers are reeling and the game is in Oxford. But this is always where Les Miles works his magic. I think almost everything favors the Rebels but this smells like one of those improbable Les Miles miracles.

Prediction: LSU 38 – Ole Miss 35

Charleston Southern at Alabama (-38)

It’s not if Bama wins, but how much they will win by. I think they come up just short of the 38 points.

Prediction: Alabama 41 – Charleston Southern 7

Idaho at Auburn (-34

Auburn will win, but not by 34.

Prediction: Auburn 44 – Idaho 21

Georgia Southern at Georgia (-13.5)

Georgia Southern could put up a fight in this game. They are 7-2 and not a bad team. That is why the spread isn’t that big. The other Bulldogs will win, and I think they cover, but not by much.

Prediction: Georgia 35 – Georgia Southern 20

Tennessee (-9) at Missouri

Tennessee is the better team. There isn’t any question about that. But there are other things to consider in this game for Missouri.

The most important thing to remember is the Tigers are playing for a coach who is retiring because he has lymphoma. They want to send him out on as best they can. The defense rises to the occasion and secures bowl eligibility. It’s my upset special!

Prediction: Missouri 13 – Tennessee 10

Texas A&M (-7) at Vanderbilt

I got a sneaky suspicion about this game to. The Aggies can’t figure out who their quarterback is. And that is a problem against a really good defense. And Vanderbilt has a really good defense. It’s my second upset special!

Prediction: Vanderbilt 21 – Texas A&M 20

Charlotte at Kentucky (-24.5)

I’m hesitant to take Kentucky covering this spread, so that should tell you how bad their season has gone. I’m going to, but I don’t feel comfortable doing it.

Prediction: Kentucky 45 – Charlotte 17

Next: MWN Mailbag: pounding the Hogs Edition

Mississippi State at Arkansas (-3.5)

I’ve already told you about why Mississippi State has a difficult opponent in Arkansas. I honestly believe this game is going to be a wild, high scoring affair in which both teams struggle to stop each other. It should be a lot of fun to watch, especially if you are not a fan of either team.

But I think Mississippi State has more defensive firepower to slow down the Razorbacks than the other way around. And that will be just enough of an edge to give Bulldogs a big bounce back victory.

Prediction: Mississippi State 48 – Arkansas 41