Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against the Spread, Week 11

Still can’t seem to get the picks back on track. I got off to a great start, and I can’t seem to rebound. I’m doing great straight up, but my picks against the spread are a struggle right now.

Nevertheless, I carry on. I will not be deterred in my valiant effort to pick the games according to the Vegas oddsmakers. I will rebound at some point!

To the picks!

Last Week

Against the Spread: 2-4
Straight Up: 4-2

Year to Date

Against the Spread: 30-33
Straight Up: 42-21

Georgia at Auburn (-1.5)

It’s the two teams picked as favorites of the divisions in the preseason. Neither will win them. Picking a winner in this game isn’t easy, but I think when it is as close as it is here, you go with the home team.

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Prediction: Auburn 30 – Georgia 24

Florida (-7.5) at South Carolina

The fact that Florida is only a little over a touchdown favorite in this game shows how inept the Florida offense has been recently. It wouldn’t surprise me if it continues to be terrible going forward.

But it won’t be so bad that it loses this game to South Carolina. The Gamecocks will struggle to put any points on the boards.

Prediction: Florida 14 – South Carolina 6

North Texas at Tennessee (-41)

If you’re gambling on this game, get help. I’m serious. Don’t ever bet on a game with this many points to cover.

But since I do this for every SEC game, Vols win but don’t cover

Prediction: Tennessee 41- North Texas 10

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (-3)

Kentucky, what have you don? You’re a 3 point dog to Vanderbilt in an SEC game.

And again, picking one of these teams is normally not good for your picks record. I’ll just go with the home team and hope everything works out okay.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 13 – Kentucky 10

Western Carolina at Texas A&M (-35.5)

Again, you have a problem if you are betting on games like this. Seriously, get help and do it sooner than later.

Texas A&M is a solid mess, but not so messy they lose to Western Carolina. There are lots of weapons on that team, they just really don’t know how to uses them. I’ll take the Aggies to cover, though I really don’t know why.

Prediction: Texas A&M 49 – Western Carolina 10

Arkansas at LSU (-7.5)

You may not have realized this, but Arkansas is the other SEC West team that took two early losses trying to salvage its chances in the division. Yes, the Hogs have four losses, but only two of them came in the SEC. An 8-4 Arkansas team salvaging its season by winning out and somehow orchestrating a 3 way tie breaker that sends the Hogs to Atlanta would be a disaster for the SEC, so keep an eye on this game this weekend.

I think this number is too high for LSU. I lean towards them winning the game, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Razorbacks pulled off the upset with the way they played in Oxford last week. If LSU and Alabama were to both lose this weekend, the SEC office would go into a deep state of mourning. I just don’t think it happens.

Prediction: LSU 34 – Arkansas 28

Next: MWN Mailbag: Rolling the tide Edition

Alabama (-8) at Mississippi State

This number also seems high for Alabama. Mississippi State is built in the mold of a team that gives Alabama trouble. There is also the pesky fact Alabama is 8-1 overall, but only 4-5 against the spread.

If the Bulldogs try to line up and run the ball, we’re toast. But if Dan Mullen moves the pocket around and doesn’t just leave Prescott to stand back there and take shots, the Bulldogs can pull this off. I think Mississippi State will get some rushing yards, but most will come through scrambles and possibly wide receiver jet sweeps. Designed runs won’t go far. I’ll never go on record picking against the Bulldogs. I won’t here either.

Prediction: Mississippi State 31 – Alabama 28