Is Dan Mullen Going to Stick with an Air Raid Offense or Not?
The big talk after MSU’s 17-9 win over Auburn is Dan Mullen’s new offensive direction: pass heavy, air raid attack. State threw the ball 41 of 62 plays (66%) vs. Auburn. That’s a far cry from the 50/50 balance he’s preached in year’s past, and it’s a real far cry from his first two years when he ran the ball less than 60% of the time only twice.
But like seemingly everything in sports, and life, people are enamored by only what they’ve just seen and lose all perspective about the season as a whole. As I mentioned in the Auburn game preview, it made more sense to run a pass-first offense because of their secondary issues. Then Will Muschamp compounded it by starting freshman in the secondary so it made even more sense.
The concerning part of the Auburn game is that the production through the air didn’t open up the running game like it should have, leaving Mullen no choice but continue to throw the ball. This is particularly concerning since the Tigers were giving up 270 YPG on the ground coming into that game.
So – was that a one game thing or will Dan Mullen be running an air raid offense with four wide and passing over 60% of the time from here on out? Let’s take a look at a few clues…
- 57% of plays have been passing
- 67% of plays in SEC games have been passing
- 145 YPG rushing
- 49.5 YPG rushing in SEC play
Those numbers would absolutely indicate a shift to the more pass-heavy offense. Here’s some more clues…
- Keeping Dak Prescott healthy for the stretch run is important, evidenced by last year
- Josh Robinson is gone, leaving a big void at running back
- Dak probably wants to throw more to improve his NFL stock, and he’s earned that opportunity
So far Dan Mullen’s pass-happy offense has done well. The Bulldogs are one made 51 yard field goal attempt away from being 4-0 and ranked in the top 10. But on the other hand, MSU is only averaging 18 points per game in SEC play.
18 points isn’t going to get it done against Texas A&M. I’d bet the house on it. And I’d also bet Dan Mullen isn’t going to abandon the running game.
Dan Mullen probably won’t dip below 50% on passing plays in SEC games this year, but I don’t expect it to continue in the upper 60s, or even in the 60s for that matter. An inability to run the football is bad news if you want to win a championship. When defenses know they can take men out of the box and still stop you, they’ll be able to stop the passing attack.
Ashton Shumpert clearly is not getting it done on the ground. 35 yards on 15 carries in two SEC games is enough seen – he isn’t hitting the line of scrimmage hard and doesn’t have enough speed to get outside. But Shumpert is a good pass blocker and pass catcher out of the backfield; he does have value. My suggestion is to play him as a fullback or H-back. That probably means not having him in the game with a Tight End, but it could on first and second down. Not that it matters anyway, Mullen isn’t going to take my advice.
There is no shortage of options at running back, however. Brandon Holloway has done pretty well and is averaging 7.9 YPC in SEC play. But, of course, a 165 pound back who goes down as soon as he’s touched is not a SEC work horse back. MSU has to look to Malik Dear, Aeries Williams or Dontavian Lee for production. If worst comes to worst, there are a couple of true freshman backs in Nick Gibson and Alec Murphy – but I don’t think it will come to that.
The main counter when you can’t run the ball are the quick passes to wide receivers where they are one on one with a defensive back in space. Generally those go for four to five yards, and are essentially a running play. But those only work for so long. Mullen has to figure out how to get production from the backfield.
Since the Arizona State game, A&M has given up 208 YPG on the ground including 232 vs. Arkansas (Arizona State only had 92 yards). If Mullen can start things off with some bruising backs like Lee and Dear up the middle, it could open things up for Dak in the read option and play action – two key components of MSU’s offensive success last year.
You have to hand it to Coach Mullen for his ability to adapt and game plan from year to year and game to game. But he knows MSU needs to run the football and cannot rely on an air raid offense. Surely he’ll come up with a way to get some yards on the ground vs. A&M so the Bulldogs can become contenders in the SEC West.