Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against The Spread, Week 4
It’s week 4 of the college football season, and the landscape of the SEC is starting to take shape. The picture will get a little less fuzzy after this week’s slate of games are in the books. Let’s not waste time. Let’s go straight to the picks! (But don’t be stupid and use these to make an actual bet)
Last Week
Against the Spread: 2-5
Straight Up: 4-3
Year to Date
Against the Spread: 7-10
Straight Up: 12-5
LSU (-24.5) at Syracuse
Do I think LSU can beat a terrible Syracuse team in the Carrier dome by 25 points? Is Leonard Fournette still on this team? He is. Then yes I do.
Prediction: LSU 38 – Syracuse 10
UCF at South Carolina (-15)
Possibly the worst matchup of the week. UCF comes to Columbia with an 0-3 record. South Carolina is 1-2 and looked awful in their lone win. I think South Carolina wins, but the real winners are the people who forget this game is on .
Prediction: South Carolina 20 – UCF 3
Tennessee (-1) at Florida
I typed this post originally on Wednesday. I was all set to pick the Gators as a -1.5 point favorite. Then Treon Harris and Jalen Tabor get suspended, or as Coach McElwain said “made choices”. I don’t like picking Tennessee in this series. They have 10 straight losses to the Gators. But at some point, when the Gators are doing everything short of giving you the game, you have to pick the Vols.
Prediction: Tennessee 27 – Florida 24
UL Monroe at Alabama (-38)
There’s a part of me that contemplated going with Alabama because Monroe is the perfect opponent for Bama to release some frustration on. But I just can’t lay 38 points.
Prediction: Alabama 41 – UL Monroe 10
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-24.5)
The line started at -27 and seems to have settled on -24.5. This looks like a sleep walk game for Ole Miss. Sure, they’ll win, and won’t have any trouble doing it, but they may not be as sharp as they normally would be.
Prediction: Ole Miss 31 – Vanderbilt 10
Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas
This game will be played in Dallas, and I wish it was being played at a different time because i wanted to see Texas A&M before they played Mississippi State next week. The line started at -4 for the Aggies and unsurprisingly, people jumped on it. There is a small part of me that wants to think the Razorbacks get their run game going and keep the Aggies off the field, but then I come to my sense and realize the Razorbacks are going to struggle to keep this within two touchdowns.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41 – Arkansas 21
Missouri at Kentucky (-3)
I don’t know what to make of this game. Every time I start to believe in Kentucky, they let me down. Every time I give up on Missouri, they make me pay. I’m just going to go with the fact that most analytics people have Missouri as the worst offense in college football, and let that be my guide.
Prediction: Kentucky 24 – Missouri 7
Mississippi State at Auburn (-2)
I still don’t know why Auburn is the favorite. The only advantage I see for Auburn is this is being played at home for Auburn. The line started at -4 and seems to have settled here. I’d take the money and run.
Prediction: Mississippi State 35 – Auburn 24