Prognostications and Prophecies: Picking SEC Games Against The Spread, Week 3
May 1, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Exterior view of the MGM Grand hotel and casino following weigh-ins for the upcoming boxing fight between Floyd Mayweather against Manny Pacquiao at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
It’s week 3 of the college football season, and the games are starting to get a little bit better. There are a couple of pretty big showdowns in the SEC, and it’s becoming a make or break type wee for a few teams based off of week 2.
That might be slightly overstating some teams situation, but not by much. Arkansas and Auburn are desperate to prove their lackadaisical performance in week 2 was an aberration. The one good thing about Auburn’s performance is I couldn’t find a line, so I didn’t include it in my predictions. South Carolina also wants to prove it isn’t headed toward the bottom of the conference.
Then you have the Ole Miss and Alabama game. The winner will have an early leg up on the division. Some see this as potential SEC West title game. That’s getting a little ahead of ourselves. There’s way too much football to play to start making those kinds of statements.
So let’s make some SEC picks against the spread. As always, don’t be stupid and use these as any actual cash wager.
Note: Spreads listed were spreads on Thursday.
Last Week
Against the Spread: 5-5
Straight Up; 8-2
Nevada at Texas A&M (-34)
There was a time when Nevada wasn’t too bad of a football team. I don’t know if this is still true, but I am going to go against my instinct and give this many points. Texas A&M just puts up a ton of points and barely covers the spread.
Prediction: Texas A&M 56 – Nevada 21
Connecticut at Missouri (-21.5)
Connecticut is not good. There is no debating this. But I don’t have enough confidence in Maty Mauk to not commit enough turnovers to beat anyone by 22 points. I just don’t. Missouri wins, but they don’t come close to covering this spread.
Prediciton: Missouri 24 – Connecticut 14
Auburn at LSU (-7)
Auburn just went out and laid an ostrich sized egg against Jacksonville State. Jeremy Johnson makes terrible decisions against average defenses. And LSU is only favored by 7? In Death Valley? Lay those points and take the Tigers. This one could get ugly.
Prediction: LSU 38 – Auburn 13
Texas Tech at Arkansas (-12)
Did the oddsmakers and gamblers not see Arkansas fail to put the ball in the end zone on numerous occasions and fail to put up many points? Did I imagine that? I believe the Razorbacks bounce back and pick up the win, but I don’t think they are going to convinve people this team is the same dark horse so many believed them to be.
Prediction: Arkansas 21 – Texas Tech 17
South Carolina at Georgia (-17)
I’m not high on the Gamecocks at all. But Georgia always seems to have a game where they can’t do anything right, and they end up blowing an easily winnable game. It happened last year against South Carolina, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again. Still, I think Georgia wins, but I’m not willing to give 17 points to Steve Spurrier and pick against him.
Prediction: Georgia 34 – South Carolina 20
Florida Gators (-3) at Kentucky Wildcats
Florida has dominated the Wildcats like very few teams ever have. The Gators have won 28 consecutive games against the Wildcats. There is an entire generation of people who weren’t even born the last time the Gators lost to Kentucky. Despite all that, the Wildcats should have won last year. If I remember correctly, there was a blown call that should have gone against the Gators, but it wasn’t and it allowed Florida to win. I don’t remember the details, but I do remember the outcry. The game is in Lexington, and Ithink the streak comes to an end.
Prediction: Kentucky 24 – Florida 20
Ole Miss at Alabama (-7)
Ole Miss is getting hit hard at the wrong time for this game. It looks like Laremy Tunsil is out because of the ongoing investigation by the NCAA. Tee Shepard has to sit out the first half because of a targeting ejection in the second half against Fresno State. and as Hugh Kellenberger points out, Nick Saban is 9-1 when he plays teams after a loss. So I don’t think Ole Miss will win. Do I think they can cover? At 7 points, no. If it moves higher due to the Tunsil situation, then yes. If it goes over ten, I would pick Ole Miss to cover, but if it stay under ten, I’d pick Bama.
Prediction: Alabama 24– Ole Miss 14
Northwestern State at Mississippi State
There currently is no line I could find for Mississippi State’s game. But since this is a site dedicated to Mississippi State, I thought I should pick the game anyway. Mississippi State doesn’t get bitten by the same bug Auburn and Arkansas had last week and rolls easily. Reserves get lots of playing time, and the Bulldogs win big.
Prediction: Mississippi State 62 – Northwestern State 10