The Numbers Game: Measuring Strength of Schedule
Mississippi State landed at #4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings this week, much to the chagrin of all non-SEC fans. The primary example critics use against MSU is their lack of top 25 wins. Let’s take a closer look at the Bulldogs strength of schedule..
We know for a fact Mississippi State defeated three top 10 teams and lost to one…at the time of the game. While rankings at the time of the game should count for something considering it affects the mental preparation for the game when it’s played, people only want to discuss where teams are ranked right now. So we’ll play by their rules.
Prior to the Alabama game, MSU was 3-0 vs. ranked teams. After the Bama game they are 1-1. The loss, plus LSU and Texas A&M losing in Week 12 dropped those teams out of the top 25. LSU was an underdog in their game and A&M lost to a now 8-2 team who is leading the SEC East and ranked in the top 20. Are the Tigers and Aggies no longer worthy of being considered a top 25 team? More on that later.
1. MSU has beaten four teams in ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) Top 25: Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU and Arkansas. Those same four teams are also in Las Vegas’ Top 25. And State’s only loss was to Alabama who is #1 according to the FPI, Las Vegas and the College Football Playoff Committee.
2. MSU has defeated four teams that are already bowl-eligible: South Alabama (6-4), LSU (7-4), Texas A&M (7-4) and Auburn (7-3). Another three teams are just one win away from bowl-eligibility: UAB (5-5), Arkansas (5-5) and Kentucky (5-6).
3. MSU is 3rd in strength of record (ranking of how hard it is to be 9-1 with their schedule) and 2nd in game control (maintaining a lead in games). So not only does State have a fantastic record under difficult circumstances, but they dominate teams as well.
4. Why are LSU and A&M not ranked? Put simply, because they have four losses. Why do they have four losses? Because they have incredibly difficult schedules.
Here are the teams LSU has lost to:
- #4 Mississippi State
- at #14 Auburn
- #1 Alabama
- at Arkansas
Yet they’ve beat (among others):
- #16 Wisconsin
- #8 Ole Miss
Here are the teams Texas A&M has lost to:
- at #4 Mississippi State
- #8 Ole Miss
- at #1 Alabama
- #20 Missouri
Yet they beat (among others)
- at #14 Auburn
Here is a list of teams in the CFB Playoff Top 25 who have yet to beat a team currently ranked (which LSU and A&M have done). In parenthesis is how many top 25 teams they’ve played…and obviously lost them all.
- #25 Minnesota (2)
- #24 Louisville (2)
- #23 Nebraska (2)
- #21 Oklahoma (3)
- #20 Missouri (1)
So five teams have yet to defeat a top 25 team, yet LSU has beaten two of them and A&M one. What’s more, LSU has faced six top 25 teams and A&M has faced five. No team listed above has faced more than three. It’s pretty easy to see why they have more losses than those teams who are ranked, but considering the fact they’ve proved themselves able to beat good teams and the others haven’t, shouldn’t they be ranked and not the teams who are?
The SEC West is tough. Really tough. The teams in the division cannibalize each other to the point of dropping out of the top 25 even though power rankings such as FPI and Las Vegas say they are one of the best 25 teams.
5. We established that MSU has won four games against the FPI and Vegas top 25, and their only loss was to #1 in both of those rankings. Here’s how the other teams in the top seven have fared:
- Alabama: 5 wins, loss to #8 Ole Miss
- Oregon: 3 wins, loss to #15 Arizona
- Florida State: 3 wins, no losses
- TCU: 2 wins, loss to #7 Baylor
- Ohio State: 1 win, loss to unranked Virginia Tech
- Baylor: 2 wins, loss to unranked West Virginia
Mississippi State has played and defeated more than enough solid teams to be worthy of the #4 ranking in the playoff….and upcoming is at road trip to #8 Ole Miss. Should they win out, even without a SEC championship to hang their hat on, the Bulldogs have a very impressive résumé that is impossible to deny when looking at his data.