List of Games to Watch that Could Benefit MSU

Nov 1, 2014; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs cheerleader during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Since Mississippi State is no longer undefeated, and don’t control their own destiny in the SEC West, just winning out may not be enough to accomplish the goals we had just one week ago. State is in a fantastic position in the SEC and nationally at 9-1, but the eyes of Bulldog nation will be wandering across the nation over these next few weeks. There will be a number of games that could ultimately affect MSU’s final destination.

The following set of “best-case scenarios” assumes MSU beats Vanderbilt and Ole Miss to end the regular season. Doing so will be no easy task, but for the purposes of this post, we’ll make that assumption. Here is a list of games in order of best-case scenarios to benefit State:

1. Auburn beats Alabama – if this happens the Bulldogs can control their own destiny again by winning the West and playing for the SEC championship against either Georgia or Missouri. MSU would not only move ahead of Alabama in the rankings, but a one-loss SEC team would be in the playoff for sure. What’s more, winning the West is a tremendous accomplishment and the opportunity to play for the SEC title would be a thrill.

2. Ohio State. I don’t care if there are several teams ahead of them right now before they can talk about getting into the top four. Chances are at least a couple of those teams will fall and the absolute last team I want MSU to go against is Ohio State. I can almost guarantee it will not matter if State’s only loss is on the road to #1 Alabama and the Buckeyes is at home to a mediocre ACC team – they will say Ohio State is “playing their best right now”, “look better than MSU” or they are “a conference champion”. It will be political. Here are their remaining games:

1. vs. Indiana (3-7)
2. vs. Michigan (5-5)
3. Big Ten Championship Game (likely against Wisconsin)

3. Florida State has been skating on thin ice all year. I don’t have to tell y’all about near misses vs. Clemson, Notre Dame, N.C. State, Louisville and Miami. Can they win out? They’ve got three more games…

1. vs. Boston College (6-4)
2. vs. Florida (5-4)
3. ACC Championship Game (against Duke or Georgia Tech)

4. The Baylor/TCU debate rages on – Baylor beat TCU and has the same number of losses but TCU is ranked ahead of them because of their schedule. Baylor’s schedule is back-loaded so I believe if they both win out it will be Baylor who finishes ahead of TCU – they will have the Big 12 championship in their back pocket because of that game. So I say Baylor is slightly ahead of the Horned Frogs in terms of teams you want to lose..

1. vs. Oklahoma State (5-5)
2. at Texas Tech (3-7)
3. vs. Kansas State (7-2)

5. Now on the flip side of that TCU/Baylor debate is TCU who is neck and neck with MSU right now for the final playoff spot. Without Baylor in the debate I’d say they will be tougher to overcome because of their quality of wins, and they would be the Big 12 champ in that scenario. Here is their schedule down the stretch…

1. Bye
2. at Texas (6-5)
3. vs. Iowa State (2-7)

6. On paper, Oregon is probably the least likely team to lose. We say that every year. Every year they lose late (except 2010). Here’s who they have…

1. vs. Colorado (2-8)
2. at Oregon State (5-5)
3. Pac 12 Championship Game (vs. USC, UCLA, Arizona or Arizona State)

7. Alabama loses the SEC Championship Game. I put it way down here because I’m not sure what that would do. If it’s to Georgia it could create quite a mess where many would clamor for UGA to get in because they won the SEC. Would it be enough to bounce Alabama out? I’m over 50% sure MSU would be in the playoff under this scenario because of just having one loss, but I’m not too sure. How would the committee weigh the fact that Bama played an extra game which is the reason for their second loss? It’s a sticky situation, so hopefully Auburn will just beat them and make it clean.

Now for the worst-case scenarios, which would be losing to Vandy and/or Ole Miss.

• If MSU were to beat Vandy and lose to Ole Miss I think they’d end up in one of the “new BCS” bowls the selection committee assigns. I would guess either the Cotton or Peach Bowl with the Rebs going to the other one.
• If MSU were to lose to both Vandy and Ole Miss, finishing 9-3, it would most likely be the Outback Bowl. This would mean one SEC team in the playoff, two in the big time bowls (Cotton, Peach, Orange, Fiesta) and then either Georgia or Missouri who would likely have 10 wins in the Capitol One Bowl.