Comparing Résumés for the College Football Playoff Rankings
Nov 15, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook (4) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. FSU won 30-26. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Each week I’ve taken a stab at what I thought the top 10 should be in the College Football Playoff rankings. This week is a little different – Mississippi State is not the clear #1. Where will they land? Where should they land? In this post I’m going to attempt to compare each team’s résumé objectively to uncover a new top 10.
I will break a tie with the “eye” test, but for the purposes of this exercise I’m just going to use résumé. Here is the criteria:
- record vs. AP top 25 teams
- record vs. current AP top 25 teams
- number of wins vs. bowl-eligible teams
- W-L record of teams lost to
I think that pretty much covers it outside the advanced metrics the committee has access to that may slightly push a team in one direction or the other. But these are the big ones: who did you beat and who did you lose to. For the purpose of the following table, I have only included the undefeated and one-loss teams in alphabetical order.
| Team | record vs. top 25 | W-L vs. current top 25 | wins vs. bowl-eligible | W-L of team lost to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 3-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8-2 |
| Baylor | 2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6-4 |
| Florida State | 2-0 | 0-0 | 5 | N/A |
| Mississippi State | 3-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9-1 |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5-5 |
| Oregon | 3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8-2 |
| TCU | 4-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8-1 |
This is where it gets tough. Florida State has an unblemished record with five wins against bowl-eligible teams, but none of them are in the current top 25. Baylor has a decent résumé but they lost to a four-loss team. I’m sticking with the same formula I have used the past few weeks: one good loss cancels out a good win, and one mediocre/bad loss cancels out two good wins. So that means nothing for FSU, but I’m cancelling out both of Baylor’s top 25 wins. That’s how I’m looking at it. Here we go…
1. Oregon – the Ducks have won three big games: vs. Michigan State, at UCLA and at Utah. They’ve only lost to Arizona, albeit at home, but they are 8-2 so it’s not that bad of a loss. They have the schedule and the record to be here.
2. TCU – this is a shock to you probably, and to me as well. I started this post expecting TCU to be 4th or 5th but I’m looking at it objectively based on the criteria and the bottom line is they have four top 25 wins, 2-1 vs. the current top 25 (which would be 1-0 using the canceling out rule of thumb) and their only loss was on the road by three points to a team that is 8-1.
3. Alabama – the Tide really don’t have the schedule to vault them up to the top right now. Sure, they look like the best team in the country but I’m going by résumé and they only have three quality wins: A&M, LSU and MSU.
4. Mississippi State – the Dawgs lose the head-to-head in an otherwise even résumé battle with Alabama. With their only loss to that 9-1 Tide team and having beat four bowl-eligible teams, it’s pretty solid.
5. Florida State – I’ve got to put the defending champs right here. They haven’t beaten a single team in the current AP top 25. Not losing does count for something, and beating five bowl-eligible teams is pretty good, but not enough to get them in the top four. Last but certainly not least is the way they have sneaked past teams – needing Clemson and Notre Dame to screw up in the red zone in Tallahassee then relying on Louisville and Miami to go conservative with big leads and let the Noles back in the game. Throw in having to comeback at N.C. State and they don’t look too good.
6. Baylor – outside of the TCU win there isn’t much meat on the bone. West Virginia is a pretty good team, but they are a four-loss team. That is dragging them down right now because all of the other teams above them have much better losses.
7. Ohio State – Virginia Tech. That’s about all you need to say because with a schedule that has only included Michigan State as a worthy adversary they are 0-1 against good teams in my method of games canceling each other out.
8. Ole Miss – I don’t have the Rebs in the table above since they have two losses, but there’s little doubt they are the best two loss team having beat Alabama.
9. UCLA – the Bruins have faced a pretty tough schedule and have wins against Arizona State, Arizona and Texas with losses to Utah and Oregon. You could make a case they should be ahead of OM but I’ll give the Rebels the benefit of the eye test.
10. Georgia – once again the SEC has five teams in the top 10. UGA finds their way in after beating Auburn – this is a good team who has slipped up a couple of times. They need a lot of dominoes to fall to get in the playoff race but it’s not impossible.
One final note: I think it’s important to take a team’s record vs. ranked teams when they played them into consideration because it has an impact on how that game was played. I know this benefits MSU, but considering LSU, A&M and Auburn were all undefeated and ranked in the top 10 they had their entire season on the line in that game. It made it much more important than say LSU playing Arkansas with three losses already in Week 12.