Things Just Got Interesting for Mississippi State
Mississippi State has been the only #1 team in the history of the College Football Playoff rankings but that will be no more after losing to Alabama. The season is far from over, however, and at 9-1 all the Bulldogs’ goals are still out there – the controlling their own destiny part just no longer remains.
SEC WEST
It’s pretty simple: win out and hope Auburn wins the Iron Bowl.
Unbelievably, Ole Miss has the exact same scenario as MSU. Two weeks ago it looked like the Rebels were down and out as they needed a seven-step process to win the West. Their luck has been really good as they’ve basically sat back at home and watched the dominos fall in their favor: Bama over LSU (to erase LSU’s tie-breaker over them), A&M over Auburn, Bama over MSU and Georgia over Auburn. Now Auburn has been eliminated and OM would hold the tiebreaker over Bama and MSU in a three-way tie as they would have beaten both of them.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
If State can win the West, they’ll be able to control their own destiny by winning the SEC and being a 1-loss conference champion (from the best conference). The chances of Alabama losing to Auburn are probably less than 50%, however, so the Bulldogs may be looking at getting into the playoff on the strength of their regular season only.
We’ll dig into how things may shake out a little more tomorrow, but for now we know MSU won’t drop any further than 5th. #6 Arizona State lost to Oregon State and #7 Baylor did not play, so that’s the worst-case scenario this week. Unfortunately, Miami was not able to upset Florida State or the Dawgs would have been in the top four for sure.
Even if State drops out of the top 4, they’ll be within striking distance at #5. We know TCU only has average Big 12 competition left while State has to go on the road to play Ole Miss. With Arizona State and Auburn losing this weekend, it’s likely the Rebs will move up to #8 this week. If they beat Arkansas they will be at least #8 for the Egg Bowl, setting up a monster match-up. Win that and it will be hard to push MSU out.
Under the scenario of an 11-1 season without the SEC West championship, there’s no doubt MSU is leaving it’s fate up to the committee. You never know what could happen in college football as any combination of Oregon, FSU and TCU could lose and State could be firmly in. Or, it could be a really close call. We don’t know for sure how much emphasis the committee will place on conference championships, and that may be the deciding factor. That would put us in an unenviable situation. Bottom line – we need some upsets, and to win out ourselves to assure making the four-team playoff.
Losing to Alabama definitely threw a wrench into the season. This is still a great spot to be in, and not all hope is lost – not even close. It’s going to be really interesting as the final few weeks of the season transpire. The Bulldogs are right in the thick of the SEC and national race, and that’s all you can ask for.