Mississippi State vs. Alabama Game Preview
Nov 16, 2013; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Malcolm Johnson (6) advances the ball and is taken out of bounds by Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Cyrus Jones (5) and Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (6) during the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
THIS. IS. IT.
#1 Mississippi State vs. #3/4/5 Alabama. This is the game you’ve been waiting your entire Mississippi State fan life for. 9-0 and strolling into Tuscaloosa to take on the dynasty. Vegas says they are #1, and have the Tide as a touchdown favorite. It’s #1 vs. #1. College Gameday, CBS. It doesn’t get any bigger.
Stats match-up
MSU rushing offense: 255 YPG (16th) vs. Bama rushing defense: 90 YPG (3rd)
MSU passing offense: 267 YPG (39th) vs. Bama passing defense: 185 YPG (15th)
Bama rushing offense: 206 YPG (36th) vs. MSU rushing defense: 127 YPG (22nd)
Bama passing offense: 281 YPG (29th) vs. MSU passing defense: 301 YPG (123rd)
The big match-up is Alabama defense vs. Mississippi State’s offense. #1 in the SEC vs. #1 in the SEC. Dak Prescott and Dan Mullen vs. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart. The Crimson Tide have had trouble in the past with elite dual threat QBs – how will they fair against Dak?
MSU’S PASS DEFENSE MUST STEP UP
Unfairly or not, MSU’s secondary has been characterized as the weak link of the team. Their stats are horrific. Yes, they have given up a lot of garbage time yardage and points that has skewed it, but there have been some times when they haven’t played up to par. The talent is there, will the execution be?
Can Blake Sims throw it deep? In his first 37 pass attempts vs. LSU he was 0 of 12 beyond 10 yards and 14 of 25 on short yardage passes. He didn’t complete a pass beyond 10 yards until the final drive of the game.
Mississippi State’s secondary must play well in this game. Geoff Collins will force Sims to throw, and Lane Kiffin will gladly do so – but it’s up to State’s secondary to contain their passing attack. Amari Cooper is the best WR in the country, and accounts for well over half of their passing game, but they will burn you by using him as a decoy to get other guys open so you have to be careful about the double and triple teams.
The defensive line will play a huge role as well. Keeping Sims in the pocket is key – he is a much better thrower on the run. Sacks and stuffing the run will ensure Alabama is trying to move the ball through the air, and hopefully the corners and safeties are up to the challenge.
LSU HANGOVER
Playing LSU is tough. They are so physical, they simply beat you black and blue. Despite the Tigers not having the best of years resulting in three losses already, they still wear teams down. So if you’ve got a game the week after it can be tough, as it’s hard to play as physical when you’re sore.
If anyone can handle this it’s Bama. They are the deepest team in the country without question. They’ve easily handled Dan Mullen’s teams in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013 the week after playing LSU…..but this Dan Mullen team isn’t like those, as the record and rank would indicate.
MSU has played Auburn and Kentucky as they came off LSU. The Bulldogs also drew Texas A&M right after they faced a similarly physical Arkansas team. State played UT-Martin in a game they didn’t even have to be physical themselves to win. This x-factor definitely benefits the Bulldogs, and it could pay off in the 4th quarter in what should be a hard-hitting game.
TEMPO
It will be really interesting to see the tempo of this game. I think Dan Mullen will dictate it for the most part. Will he come out firing or play conservative? If it’s the former Lane Kiffin will eat it up and be ready to match him with some body blows through the passing game. This game could get conservative, however, and be a defensive struggle with neither team showing much on offense until the end.
It’s hard to say what State should do as far as pushing to envelope offensively. There’s no question they need to establish the run, but also hitting some receivers early could really help to open things up for Prescott. Look out for Malcolm Johnson, a Tuscaloosa native – he’ll be poised to have another big game against the Tide. Will Jameon Lewis be back? Between him and MoJo, they can really open up the middle of the field which is huge for Dak. If they can get that going I really like State’s chances.
UNDERDOGS
This game has the potential to be a classic. So many folks are picking against Mississippi State. We’ve gone from underdog to newcomer to established team back to underdog again. The Bulldogs may be #1, but they are essentially in the same spot they were when going into Death Valley: no one on the outside believes they are the better team.
State will just have to prove it on the field. This game is so huge. The SEC West is on the line. One loss may not kill the playoff chances but you’re putting that decision in someone else’s hands which is a dangerous thing. It will be very interesting and exciting. I can’t wait. Hail State.