Overreactions and Football
Nov 1, 2014; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs fans ring their cowbells during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Way back in 2000, Howie Long, one of the best defensive linemen to play for the Raiders was inducted into the Professional Football Hall of Fame. He was asked in the days leading up to his enshrinement if football had replaced baseball as the National Past Time. His answer wasn’t what most expected but it was correct. He said football was America’s passion. And he’d be right.
Americans are more passionate about football than we are about any other sport. Part of that is due to the fact that there is a very limited number of games that are played and there is usually a week between those games. With passion comes overreactions. And there have been a lot of overreactions about Mississippi State and its football team this season.
Overreaction Number 1
The Overreaction: The Defense is bad, especially the secondary. That has been the cry since the UAB game. The defense is terrible and they are going to cost the Bulldogs a game at some point. How can a good defense give up over 500 yards to UAB? Adding to this mantra was that Kentucky exposed the defense when it played so well against the Mississippi State defense.
More likely truth: The Bulldogs are giving up yards because teams are being forced to pass. The front seven for Mississippi State is as good as there is in the country. People don’t run the ball well against the Bulldogs at all. Mississippi State just held Arkansas, one of the best rushing teams in the country, to well below their season average. When you can’t run, you have to start throwing the ball. And the more you throw, the more likely you are going to get a big play. The one thing they have done consistently in the secondary is force quarterbacks into inaccurate throws. Opposing quarterbacks have only completed 53% of their passes against the Bulldogs and have a 13:12 Touchdown to Interception ratio. Yes, they give up yards, but they also make big plays.
Overreaction Number 2
The Overreaction: Mississippi State is struggling. Mississippi State didn’t blow the doors off of Kentucky or Arkansas so they must be struggling. They were two inferior teams so the Bulldogs should be waxing these types of opponents. As a result, the Bulldogs are headed for two certain losses in Alabama and Ole Miss.
More Likely Truth: Bulldogs are doing what you have to in the West, win and survive. One of the things that has been evident in the Bulldogs meteoric rise to the number 1 ranking in the country is that the Bulldogs played with an abundance of energy and passion when they knocked off LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn. They reach number 1 and have to play two teams that are not ranked and will struggle to get to bowl eligibility. Jackie Sherrill used to say that you could only get a team really pumped up about three games a year. I think there is some truth to that. I don’t know about the three games a year, but it’s hard for teams to get emotionally charged about playing teams they are supposed to beat. When the other team is playing the team with a 1 beside it, they can get pumped about playing it easily. Add to it the bruising style that Arkansas plays, and it is easy to see why the Bulldogs didn’t have their best performances against Kentucky and Arkansas. Expect the energy we saw earlier in the year to return against Alabama.
Overreaction Number 3
The Overreaction: Dak Prescott isn’t handling the Heisman talk very well. Dak Prescott has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in his last 3 games. He hasn’t been as accurate as he once was. The Heisman talk is getting to him.
More Likely Truth: Dak Prescott is finding different ways to make plays. Dak hasn’t been as good in the passing game recently. He made one really bad decision against Arkansas and some bad throws against Auburn. But he has also found ways to make important plays when his team needs him, and that is what Heisman Trophy contenders do. The other part of this equation is that Jameon Lewis, Dak’s favorite target, has been injured. Yes, he has been on the field, but I really wouldn’t call it playing. He has had one catch in the two games he has been in since the injury at LSU, but that has been it. Until his favorite target in the middle of the field gets back to full strength, it is going to be tough sledding for Dak in the passing game.
When you are the top ranked team in the country, people look for holes. People need compelling storylines, and a team that shouldn’t beat the number 1 team challenging them or possibly beating them makes for great storylines. It also makes people overreact when we see something one week. People like to say that something was exposed. We will see just how much truth there is to that on the 15th.