Who Wins the Egg Bowl if Played Today and Why?
Number-one Mississippi State at Number-3 Mississippi in the Battle for the Golden Egg; that doesn’t even sound right reading it or typing it, but – if things stay the course in this year’s college football world, that’s exactly what you might get in seven short weeks.
The Egg Bowl has always meant so much to both programs ( Yes even you Ole Miss fan), but if things stay the way they are, this year’s Egg Bowl will be without a shadow of a doubt the biggest ever.
Just think of the story lines that would play out. Hugh Freeze Versus Dan Mullen part three, Dak’s Attack on the Rebels and the Heisman, Ole Miss eyes first trip to Atlanta, and the Biggest of all – Dogs, Rebs Battle for National Championship Playoff Spot.
If both teams can stay the course, this will be without question the biggest football game ever played in the State of Mississippi.
But –who would win and why, right now? Based on the first six weeks of the season, Ole Miss has without a doubt the best defense in the country and a quarterback in Bo Wallace that can be dangerous. The Rebs have an arsenal of receivers that are good enough to be great on certain days, but a running game that lacks consistency and an offensive line that needs improvement.
Mississippi State boasts arguably the best offense in the country and the best player in college football in Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs can pound you and run downhill, but beat you over the top with several playmakers.
Their defensive front seven is just as good as Ole Miss, but it’s their secondary that can give up the big play. Also for the Dawgs, their field goal unit is truly a weak link.
So just who would win and why? Well, with the Egg Bowl, like many rivalry games sometimes you just throw out logic because it’s going to be a crazy day. But – today we will use logic and some computer animations with statistical data to base a projected winner.
We will start with the obvious which are basic averages. Ole Miss is averaging 35.7 points per game while giving up only 11.8. For simple math we will round up and say they are averaging 36 points per on offense and allowing 12 on defense. That defensive stat is very impressive.
Mississippi State on the other hand is averaging 42 points per game on offense and allowing only 20 points per on defense.
That’s a point differential (points scored minus points allowed) of 24 for Ole Miss and 22 for Mississippi State – very close.
The Bulldogs are scoring 6-more points a game than Ole Miss at this time which is literally a touchdown more. The Rebels are giving up 8-points less per game which is a score and a two point conversion.
So after all that, we actually know nothing other than it should be a tight ball game.
I think you have to look deeper than these stats to find a potential winner and we will start at the line of scrimmage.
Oct 11, 2014; Starkville, MS, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall (14) steps out of the pocket and is chased by Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive lineman Preston Smith (91) during the game at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss Offensive Line verses State Defensive Line:
Ole Miss on the ground is averaging 3.86 yards per carry as a team up to this point, while the Bulldogs are giving up just 3.39 yards per play. At this rate, the Bulldogs should be able to stale mate the Rebel running attack, making them one dimensional on offense.
The Bulldogs have done a great job getting to the quarterback with their front four and even with a fifth man this year as they have 21-sacks thus far this season. The Rebels have given up 11-sacks this year, which is about 2-per game. If the Bulldogs can continue to stay at the top of the SEC in this category, they will give Wallace fits, much like they did last year.
Mississippi State Offensive Line verses Ole Miss Defensive Line:
This will be a huge factor and go a long way in this matchup, but I don’t think I’m spitting rocket science to anyone that slightly understands the intricacies of football.
The Bulldogs are averaging 5.5 yards per carry which is only slightly behind SEC leaders Arkansas and Georgia. The Bulldogs have been great on the ground all season and that’s a key cog to their offense.
The Rebel defense is giving up 3.3 yards per play on the ground which is tops in the SEC. So what you will see is the best run defense against one of the best run offenses in the conference and the country. Here you will see two things play out in this game.
Ole Miss will make some plays to put the Bulldogs at second and long or third and eight or nine, forcing them into apparent throwing situations and you will see the Bulldogs get their share of 5-7 yard runs, creating manageable second and third downs. It will just come down to which situation happens more for the other team.
The Rebs have tallied 11-sacks thus far, giving them about 2-sacks per game. The Bulldogs are giving up right at 2-sacks per game. So expect Prescott to hit the turf at least twice. It just depends on when and where this happens, too if these plays are big game changers or not.
Final Take on the trenches:
Both of these defensive fronts are two of the best in the business, while the State offensive line is vastly better at this point than the Rebels. I didn’t think we would see that at the beginning of the year, but that’s what we are seeing in run production, sacks allowed and more.
Ole Miss is getting about 7-tackles for loss per game on defense which is huge, but their offense is giving up 7-per game which cancels that out.
The Bulldogs are getting 8-tackles per loss on defense and allowing 4-per game on offense.
In the end, I give the edge to the State offensive line, while I would say these defensive lines are on par with one another.
Sep 7, 2013; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels defensive end Robert Nkemdiche (5) goes in for the tackle on Southeast Missouri State Redhawks quarterback Scott Lathrop (17) during the second half at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports
Passing Offenses versus Passing Defenses:
At this juncture, Ole Miss is averaging right at 295-yards per game through the air, while the Bulldogs are giving up 308-yards per game in the passing game.
Conversely, the Bulldogs are averaging 265-yards per game in the air, while the Rebs are giving up 194-yards per game. There’s no doubt the Ole Miss Secondary is better than the State secondary at this point. Both passing games are averaging about 9-yards per play, but the difference is State is allowing 2-yards more per play on defense.
Redone Scoring, Intangibles and More:
Oddly, right now the Rebels are converting 78% of the time in the redzone at home – six touchdowns and one field goal.
Mississippi State is converting 78% of redzone opportunities on the road – five touchdowns and two field goals.
The Rebels are converting 47% of their third down opportunities, while the Bulldogs are converting 43%.
The Rebels have gone for it more on fourth down this year than the Bulldogs and are out pacing their Starkville counterparts in this department, 67% to 38% (something to be leery of in this ball game.)
Turnover margin, both are in the “plus category (more turnovers gained than commited), the Rebels have a margin of (6), while the Bulldogs have a margin of (3). The Rebels have turned it over more through the air than State, but the Bulldogs have coughed up more fumbles than the Rebs.
Oddly, only one interception separates both secondary’s – Ole Miss with 12 and the Bulldogs with 11.
So where are we going:
So after all of this stat-tastic information what does it tell you? It tells you to expect one heck of a football game from two of the top teams in the country.
Here are two simulations that were done, courtesy of NCAA game simulator. It takes stats, trends and more to project the outcome of a game and figures in location as well.
The first simulation has State winning a high scoring game and I know many will laugh at that, but this is the Egg Bowl and it wouldn’t surprise me to see both offenses get hot.
What we see in this first scenario is both quarterbacks getting hot and both making big plays. The difference in this one is Prescott and Robinson being able to get to that 150-yard mark on the ground. I think anyone that has followed this series with any length, while not expecting a high scoring, close affair, wouldn’t be surprised.
The second scenario is one I would be more in line with. Almost a replica of last year and I will explain in just a bit.
In this scenario, you see both quarterbacks having modest days in the air, but again the difference is the ability to run the ball for Robinson and Prescott.
The one big thing for Mississippi State this year is balance offensively. The Bulldogs are averaging 264-yards per game on the ground and 265-yards per game through the air. That balance has allowed them to totally keep any defense off guard.
Now many Rebel fans will point to the last time State was in Oxford, Bo Wallace shredded the State secondary and while true, the big stat in that game was Ole Miss’s ability to run the football. In 2012 the Rebels hung 233 – rushing yards on the Bulldogs, led by Jeff Scott and Barry Brunetti. That balance allowed the Rebels offense to flourish.
The Rebels haven’t shown that kind of balance this season on offense and their best output on the ground was 214-yards against Louisiana Lafayette.
So after all that, while Ole Miss is superior on defense, State’s offensive line can do just enough to help the balanced State offense sustain drives. The State defense will make Wallace again one dimensional, putting the ball in his hands.
Finally, you look at quarterback play and Prescott can do more than Wallace, via the running game or the pass and big time quarterbacks typically perform well in these settings.
I could totally see a 10-3 or 10-7 game in the fourth quarter, where State scores late to seal the deal, 17-3 or 17-10.
Watch last year’s Egg Bowl and how it played out. Most of the same players will be on the field and you should expect similar results this time around as well, based on what we have seen through six games.