Mississippi State vs. Auburn Game Preview
Sep 14, 2013; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Nick Marshall (14) throws a pass against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
College Gameday, 2:30 on CBS, #2 vs. #3 in the nation – this game has it all! The 2014 version of Mississippi State vs. Auburn will be unlike any other game in the series. Never before has MSU been in the AP top 5 – no other time in the 114+ year history of the football program have they ascended this high. And to greet the Bulldogs as a newly minted top 5 team is none other than the #2 team in the land, the Auburn Tigers.
Mississippi State has played in three prior games with more significance: 1998 vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Arkansas to get steal the SEC West lead in the penultimate game of the season, Ole Miss to clinch the SEC West, and Tennessee to play for the SEC Championship in Atlanta. But make no mistake, never before has the attention been on MSU like it has been this week nor has the spotlight shown brighter than it will on Saturday.
So without further adieu, I bring you the MSU vs. Auburn game preview…
Statistical Comparison
MSU rushing offense: 274 YPG (14th) vs. AUB rushing defense: 100 YPG (13th)
MSU passing offense: 267 YPG (44th) vs. AUB passing defense: 206 YPG (33rd)
AUB rushing offense: 268 YPG (15th) vs. MSU rushing defense: 98 YPG (11th)
AUB passing offense: 229 YPG (72nd) vs. MSU passing defense: 328 YPG (126th)
Those stats show two teams that are pretty evenly matched. From everything I’ve seen out of both teams they are as complete as any team in the country on offense and defense.
Of course, many folks will point to MSU’s 126th rated pass defense, but those numbers are awfully skewed. The UAB game was a fluke with State stacking the box to stop the run and the Blazers heaving several miracle passes that turned into gold. Then there are all the garbage 4th quarter yards that have been racked up in blowouts – nearly all of them are passing yards against 2nd and 3rd string players as teams do in such times.
HEISMAN BATTLE
I’ve always disliked Heisman discussion until the last week of the season. It’s an individual award in a team game. But with Dak Prescott involved I’ve softened up a little bit. It’s good to see a MSU player involved in the national discussion.
Both Prescott and Nick Marshall are dynamic quarterbacks with a lot of rushing and passing ability. I think both of their abilities to throw the ball are underrated, but there’s no doubt running the football is their bread and butter. Marshall has been know to do this. Prescott has been known to do this.
- Prescott: 5/2
- Marshall: 11/2
These are the two best QBs in the SEC and it will be a great duel up against two solid defenses. Whoever wins will likely be the front-runner for the Heisman at the mid-way point of the season.
STOP THE RUN
Both teams are going to attempt to stop the run. It’s the bread and butter of both Dan Mullen and Gus Malzahn’s offensive strategy. The good news for both defenses is they are both good at it. MSU may be slightly better, and they held Auburn’s incredible 2013 rushing attack to a season low so the formula has worked before. What’s more, Kansas State was very successful stopping Auburn’s run game and forced Marshall to pass. The Tigers ended up winning that game but it would be pretty easy to argue they should have lost if it were not for a handful of KSU miscues.
No team has been able to stop MSU’s offense since it’s been at full strength and completely committed to Dak Prescott. The last six games (Liberty Bowl + five games in 2014) have all included at least 500 yards of total offense. The strength is the power run game. If Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson continue to do what they’ve done so far this year they will be fine.
(via For Whom the Cowbell Tolls)
Something to look out for is 3rd down conversions, which each defense has excelled in. When you can stop the run on first and second down to force a third and long it goes a long way; as well as bowing up on 3rd and short to force a punt.
Auburn 3rd down defense: allowing 29% conversion rate (13th in nation)
MSU 3rd down defense: allowing 27% conversion rate (5th in nation)
SPECIAL TEAMS
In a game between two teams with such strengths on both sides of the ball, special teams could play a major role. Auburn has a clear advantage here.
Field goal kicker Daniel Carlson is 7 for 9 on the year and is the reigning SEC special teams player of the week. By contrast, MSU’s only realistic hope of making a field goal is if it’s a glorified extra point.
Devon Bell missed the Texas A&M game with an groin injury. Logan Cooke filled in incredibly well on kickoff and punt duties considering the circumstances, but he is a true freshman so should he have to play it could be something to watch out for. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn brought the heat on a punt or two to pressure him.
Punt returns have been pretty mediocre for MSU this year. Jamoral Graham has been the primary guy and while he’s looked pretty comfortable as a true freshman, he did muff a punt against Texas A&M that ended up a turnover. Auburn, on the other hand, is 4th in the country in punt returns led by Quan Bray who already has two touchdowns in just eight returns.
State has to limit big plays in special teams to nil. Just like against LSU a major key will be kickoffs through the back of the endzone, fair catches when punting and securing the football. If there’s a chip shot field goal to be made, it must be made. We aren’t asking for a 45 yarder into the wind, just hit the 28 yarder from straight away.
INJURIES
I mentioned Devon Bell above, he is questionable (maybe probably depending on your interpretation of Mullen’s comments) as is Jameon Lewis. Despite missing the Texas A&M game, Lewis is still MSU’s leading receiver with 223 yards. The Bulldogs did not miss him at all against the Aggies, but there’s no denying what he means to the offense and his big play potential would mean a lot in the game like this. I would imagine if there is any way Tubby can play, he’ll be out there.
Auburn lost starting RT Patrick Young just before the LSU game. Their O-line was a huge strength last year and even after losing LT Greg Robinson as the 2nd overall pick in the NFL Draft many thought the Tigers still had one of the best lines returning. So far this year it hasn’t been quite as good as they’ve suffered some injuries. This unit is good but still finding it’s way a little bit and could be an area MSU could exploit with their great D-line.
This has all the makings of a classic football game. #2 Auburn vs. #3 Mississippi State. It doesn’t get much better than this. College Gameday, CBS – the whole nine yards. Both teams are exceptionally good and without much weakness. They are talented, experienced and deep. For my money, the best two teams in the SEC right now.
Blocking, tackling and turnovers are likely going to decide this battle. One on one matchups in the trenches may be split 50/50 by the end of the night. It will surely be an interesting game, and one I can’t wait to watch unfold.